Bakou

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CL1! 100% | 8
Bakou Bakou CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: WTI H&S  8
85 2 3
CL1!, D Long
WTI H&S 8

Well, the pullback was short ! The large green candle of today is nice as it overcomes the 20 DMA (blue line). Next resistances are the 50 DMA (red line) and the 23.6% Fib.

Bakou Bakou CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: WTI H&S / 7
109 0 3
CL1!, D Long
WTI H&S / 7

After a final jump to attract buyers, we eventually proceeded with the due correction we were waiting for. Whether it will be a pullback en route to a construction of our inverted H&S, or a resuming of the downtrend, will be determined following its shape and depth. Above the 200 DMA (orange line), probabilities remain intact. The support of last resort is the ...

Bakou Bakou CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: WTI H&S / 6
58 0 3
CL1!, D Long
WTI H&S / 6

Same general comments as yesterday. We can notice that the recent up-leg topped at the 50% Fib of the large move from 2016/04/05 to 2016/06/09. 20 DMA (blue line) role as a resistance confirmed. Let's observe how this pullback unfolds, as long as it stays above the 200 DMA (orange line).

Bakou Bakou CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: WTI H&S / 5
92 5 3
CL1!, D Long
WTI H&S / 5

As expected (see previous posts), the 20 DMA provided with a resistance. To go on with our building of an inverted H&S, a pullback must not drag price below the 200 DMA.

Bakou Bakou CL1!, 60, Long ,
CL1!: WTI inverted H&S / 4
47 0 3
CL1!, 60 Long
WTI inverted H&S / 4

Correction to the previous post: The neckline of our small scale inverted H&S is the oblique red line. After being broken, this line became a support during Friday price action. What's next ? Probabilities for completion of the large scale H&S are increasing (see previous posts), but we are not done yet. Consolidation pullbacks may occur. One to be expected is ...

Bakou Bakou CL1!, 60, Long ,
CL1!: WTI H&S / 3: Scale Invariance ?
70 1 2
CL1!, 60 Long
WTI H&S / 3: Scale Invariance ?

Reminder: We had yesterday a large green daily candle which crossed upwards the 200 DMA above the 50% Fib of our probable pattern (from 2016/02/11 to 2016/06/09 - green Fib - Daily chart) - see previous posts. What could be unfolding today is a classical phenomenon in complex systems, namely a Scale Invariance. The right shoulder of our inverted H&S is itself an ...

Bakou Bakou CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: WTI H&S probabilities /2
80 2 2
CL1!, D Long
WTI H&S probabilities /2

We got it ! Above the 200 DMA (orange line) probability of building the H&S pattern increases a lot. First step: Let's see if there is a follow through.

Bakou Bakou CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: WTI H&S probabilities
80 0 1
CL1!, D Long
WTI H&S probabilities

WTI price crossed downwards the 200 DMA (orange line) but is still above the 50% Fib of a possible reversed H&S pattern. Above this 50% Fib (@ $ 38.85), probability for building this pattern remains.Under this Fib, it evaporates. Crossing upwards the 200DMA with a large green candle is a buy signal - Target $ 50. Then, after confirmation of pattern completion, we ...

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