Bankuur

Bankuur

The EUR/USD was rejected big, 2 days in a row. Lots of selling pressure. Obviously, this was due to the strong US market on Thursday and Germany getting closer and closer to a recession. I may look for an entry tomorrow at open, if the 4 hour or 1 hour charts look promising. Or, I might wait to see if the low can be broken, then wait for it to fall to that...

Bankuur

The Russell ETF could not break out of consolidation, but the other 3 majors did break. The Russell - being the major small cap index - is an indicator of risk. When the Russell is rising, investors are less fearful. When the Russell is falling, investors are cautious ... That's the basic concept anyways. I think this Russell chart is showing that maybe people...

Bankuur

UGAZ is looking pretty bullish to me from a technical standpoint. I can't really speak fundamentally for it, as I am not normally a natural gas trader ... but technically, I think it looks bullish in the short term. It has been in a solid down trend since March, but the down trend resistance was broken and, not only that, but the 50 MA was also broken. The...

Bankuur

A couple weeks ago I published this descending triangle. Today, I'm republishing the same triangle, but this time with some kickers... Fundamentally, oil doesn't seem to be buying the hype surrounding all this "good" news about trade talks resuming in October. Yesterday, oil shot up right at triangle resistance, then came right back down for a bearish pin bar...

Bankuur

My last publish from yesterday analyzed a bull flag on the 1 hour chart - it broke out last night. This chart is the 4 hour, but as you can see, that long-term trend line dating back to December is creating issues for it rising any higher. I think this morning's non-farm payroll and then Powell's speech will determine if ES and SPY have enough gas in the tank to...

Bankuur

Part of being a good trader is to recognize when you are wrong, and adapt accordingly. It's been a wild ride this month, and I have stayed bearish the whole time... until today when I became neutral. But should I just go against my gut (for now) and go bullish? I'm thinking so. At least in the short term ( a month or so). I still think a good size correction is...

Bankuur

I'm kinda throwing my hands up in the air, and shaking my head. This volatility is news driven... there is no logical explanation for us not to be 10% lower right now. So, I'm just trying to stay patient until there is a solid direction for the S&P.

Bankuur

Under normal market conditions, this pennant break-out would be considered very bullish. If this was a normal market, I would now think this would head up to at least retest the all-time highs. However, this is not a normal market - it is news driven in my opinion. News broke last night that China and the USA would resume talks in October. The market loved this,...

Bankuur

The consolidation finally broke after a month... or did it? Is this a fake? We might go and retest the all time highs at 3030.25, or we might fall back down and this be just a fake out. The market is trading on news and news ONLY! It has been for the last month. So why would that change now? The slightest bit of negative trade war news will send this right back...

Bankuur

SPY volume was barely half of the daily average at close. That is VERY bad for the longs. On the e-mini: If a close below the recent pin bar happens then I believe a lower high would have been made, keeping my predictions alive. If futures dive, obviously SPY follows.

Bankuur

So, all last week the hype, and what was keeping the pumpers pumping, was good news on the trade war front. The news - talks would resume, and China would not immediately retaliate. But, there were 2 key words in there that the bulls didn't want to think about: "talks" and "immediately." Talks would resume - So what? They've never really stopped "talking."...

Bankuur

I was messing around with my charts and noticed that SPY and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) are diverging. Looking back in time - with the exception of one littler divergence a couple years ago - I can't find anywhere else this has happened. Is this maybe a sign that the consumer is getting overly confident? When fear is turned off, things eventually get out of...

Bankuur

The EUR/USD is at big time support level dating back to 2015 on the weekly. It has also been trending down for quite some time on the daily... If the weekly support, and the low pin bar is broken, I might play this down for a month or so. Fundamentally, if the US sinks into a correction there will be USD pain. This might create a fake breakout to the downside...

Bankuur

Daily /CL is showing a descending triangle that looks to be close to a breakout. If it breaks to the downside, I think it will retest a major daily support level that dates back to 2015 (noted via the dashed line at bottom). Fundamentally, oil is at the mercy of geopolitical issues. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty between the U.S.A. and Iran. Iran...

Bankuur

Is the consolidation trying to break finally? I dunno... On the 4 hour, it looks like it just tried to. The most recent 4 hour candle/volume is notated with blue arrows, and the same 4 hour period from 24 hours ago is notated with black arrows. I noticed a couple things: In comparison to the same period 24 hours ago, the volume was light this time. Not only that,...

Bankuur

Keeping it simple... Is there some volume divergence going on? Throughout this consolidation period (grey box) that started about a month ago, volume has steadily dropped with the exception of last Friday. Was last Friday a pre-cursor of what's to come? Will we finally break out of this range to the downside? Today, SPY is on pace to have its lowest volume day in...

Bankuur

It amazes me when I enter an investment chatroom and see all the pumpers, pumping SPY today like it's gonna sky rocket from here. Like it's going to blow through the all-time high reached at the end of July... Listen, we are in a consolidation, it's that SIMPLE! Until this consolidation is broken - either a close below lowest point of consolidation or a close...

Bankuur

Same story as the SPY... Looks bearish to me for the short term. It looks like we might move lower from here and test the bottom of the consolidation, then bounce back up to retest the top (red arrow). Or, we might FINALLY breakthrough the bottom and retest the lows from a couple weeks ago (other red arrow). Either way, until something solid happens with the trade...