The consolidation finally broke after a month... or did it? Is this a fake?
We might go and retest the all time highs at 3030.25, or we might fall back down and this be just a fake out. The market is trading on news and news ONLY! It has been for the last month. So why would that change now? The slightest bit of negative trade war news will send this right back down. Or, the slightest bit of positive trade war news will send this blasting thru the all time highs. This creates a dilemma for those that are good traders and actually do their homework... because, there is no rhyme or reason to this market insanity - the philosophy now, seems to be "trade the news!"
From what I have seen, the vast majority of this market it comprised of gamblers, not investors or traders. There is a serious lack of market intelligence right now, and it's starting to frustrate me. Fundamentally and technically, the market is not in a good place. Not a terrible place, but not a good one either. However, the hope and prayer people continue to want to drive the S&P straight up with no correction, making things even more overpriced than they already are. I crunched some numbers last week, and the PE for SPY is about 35% overpriced (my numbers, so maybe I'm wrong), and that is after this recent fall from the all time highs.
I am not doom and gloom; I do not think a recession is imminent, but I do think a good size correction is warranted and needed. But, I am being outmatched by very inept traders. So, I have decided to go neutral for a bit.
We might go and retest the all time highs at 3030.25, or we might fall back down and this be just a fake out. The market is trading on news and news ONLY! It has been for the last month. So why would that change now? The slightest bit of negative trade war news will send this right back down. Or, the slightest bit of positive trade war news will send this blasting thru the all time highs. This creates a dilemma for those that are good traders and actually do their homework... because, there is no rhyme or reason to this market insanity - the philosophy now, seems to be "trade the news!"
From what I have seen, the vast majority of this market it comprised of gamblers, not investors or traders. There is a serious lack of market intelligence right now, and it's starting to frustrate me. Fundamentally and technically, the market is not in a good place. Not a terrible place, but not a good one either. However, the hope and prayer people continue to want to drive the S&P straight up with no correction, making things even more overpriced than they already are. I crunched some numbers last week, and the PE for SPY is about 35% overpriced (my numbers, so maybe I'm wrong), and that is after this recent fall from the all time highs.
I am not doom and gloom; I do not think a recession is imminent, but I do think a good size correction is warranted and needed. But, I am being outmatched by very inept traders. So, I have decided to go neutral for a bit.