To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective.
Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by...
Forget the lines and forecasts, it is merely an indication to watch for the signs. And without pretty charts, no one looks at this stuff.
Rig count is decreasing at a rate only surpassed in 1987. (Stand to correction)
Even so, US oil production is at record levels and increasing at a rate, bar no other time. Huh, I hear you say? Oil producers are competing...
I understand that Friday is not the best day, with quadruple witching day. Volatility and specifically the broadly traded VIX futures is possibly a bad indicator considering expiry volatility and the numerous covering taking place for the next month/quarter, but VIX was holding up surprisingly well on Friday considering the S&P spent most of the day at its...
Are the last few month's decrease in retail sales "transitory" as the FED puts it or should the market be pricing in risk.
The last time retail sales started falling like this, the market had already priced in risk for 1 year.
QE and NZIRP do strange things!
So which one will correct?
QE and NZIRP have created such a bubble since 2013 and has completely diverged from macro fundamentals.
Based on history, which always returns back to mean?
But it's different this time, until it's not.
Note the divergence between S&P and VIX. VIX is working in risk that is not being reflected in S&P. At some point, most likely tomorrow with the FOMC announcement, there is an opportunity for convergence on one of the instruments.
Weak fundamentals but no downward technical signal. I guess the equities market still believes in QE4 or at the very least, no interest rate increase.
S&P divergence to macro fundamentals and forward...