BobbyBlueShoes

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About me I used to intra/interday trade. For me, the cliché was true. 90%+ of retail traders loose capital over the long run. I now focus on medium to long term, event or sentiment driven investment.
Joined
Short the S&P incl. derivitive equivilants, 95% invested (Not leveraged). 5% event/sentiment swing trading in anything/anywhere (Leveraged)
Markets Allocation
43 % commodities 43 % indices 14 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 42% | 3 VI1! 28% | 2 CPIAUCSL 14% | 1 CL1! 14% | 1
BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes CPIAUCSL, D,
CPIAUCSL: QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.
90 0 3
CPIAUCSL, D
QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.

To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective. Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by ...

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil about to get monkey-hammered?
947 6 11
CL1!, D Short
Oil about to get monkey-hammered?

Forget the lines and forecasts, it is merely an indication to watch for the signs. And without pretty charts, no one looks at this stuff. Rig count is decreasing at a rate only surpassed in 1987. (Stand to correction) Even so, US oil production is at record levels and increasing at a rate, bar no other time. Huh, I hear you say? Oil producers are competing ...

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes VI1!, D, Long ,
VI1!: Does the VIX know something?
75 2 0
VI1!, D Long
Does the VIX know something?

I understand that Friday is not the best day, with quadruple witching day. Volatility and specifically the broadly traded VIX futures is possibly a bad indicator considering expiry volatility and the numerous covering taking place for the next month/quarter, but VIX was holding up surprisingly well on Friday considering the S&P spent most of the day at its ...

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes SPX, W, Short ,
SPX: S&P vs retail spending?
89 0 1
SPX, W Short
S&P vs retail spending?

Are the last few month's decrease in retail sales "transitory" as the FED puts it or should the market be pricing in risk. The last time retail sales started falling like this, the market had already priced in risk for 1 year. QE and NZIRP do strange things!

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes SPX, W, Short ,
SPX: S&P vs. new orders?
127 0 5
SPX, W Short
S&P vs. new orders?

So which one will correct? QE and NZIRP have created such a bubble since 2013 and has completely diverged from macro fundamentals. Based on history, which always returns back to mean? But it's different this time, until it's not.

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes VI1!, D, Short ,
VI1!: S&P vs VIX divergence
18 0 0
VI1!, D Short
S&P vs VIX divergence

Note the divergence between S&P and VIX. VIX is working in risk that is not being reflected in S&P. At some point, most likely tomorrow with the FOMC announcement, there is an opportunity for convergence on one of the instruments.

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes SPX, W, Short ,
SPX: Waiting
70 0 0
SPX, W Short
Waiting

Weak fundamentals but no downward technical signal. I guess the equities market still believes in QE4 or at the very least, no interest rate increase. Hindenburg Omen http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150317_EOD1.jpg S&P divergence to macro fundamentals and forward ...

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