Last week the S&P 500 broke bullish out of its long-term bullish triangle. Today it retests the old trend line. If it holds, I target my position at the old high of 2872.
Now the S&P 500 is finally catching up with the US fundamentals... The fundamentals are overly bullish, the Purchasing Managers Index forecasts more positive movements, the consumer index is up....
Last 2 weeks we broke the uptrend line (purple line) as stated before, and we had a nice move down and quick profit. Last week we touched the strong support zone (blue line) at 1.218 and are now moving higher again, in sync with the overall trend since 2017.
EURUSD broke its longterm daily trendline last week. So whats next?
On the 4 hour chart, we can see we already retested the trendline, so at least a nice move down can be expected from my point of view.
The EURUSD finally reached an interesting point on Friday EOB.
Price broke the bullish trendline but did not follow through. Price ended the trading week with a close just below the trendline and with a bearish Pinbar on the 15-minute chart.
Next week will be interesting to see if the EUR can continue its bullish movement or if this is a lasting break of the...
XAUUSD broke the mid term bullish trendline and now looks like its ready to move lower, continuing a bearish pennant formation.
The Commitment of Traders report shows an extreme high (> 90%) for the last 2 weeks and is on a down slope. Additionally last 6-12 months US fundamentals are strong and could add to the downside.
But remember, its just probabilities,...
The long down move of the USDCAD stopped at the 50% fib level of the last bullish up move. If it holds the probability of retesting the old high is pretty good. If the fib level does not hold, we could see a move down to the 61% fib or more.
EURJPY reverted its downside break of the 20 SMA last week with a retest of the broken intermediary bullish trendline, but failed to move back up the trendline. The current momentum looks like a further down move is to be expected.
Cable broke the long standing bearish trendlone (last retest in June 2016!) and now looks like a bullish move is imminent. If the recent move was jsut a fakeout, a vicious move lower is to be expected, as it will kill lots of bulls stop losses.
EURUSD is in agreement with the current XAUUSD situation, as its now in a situation where it encounters resistance ahead and may retest the bullish trendline and if it breaks it looks like a downside for the rest of the month of September.
XAUUSD looks like its about to retrace some of its previous steep move up. A triple bearish divergence has build up and the current trendline is far lower. Expect at least a retest of the rising trendline before a further move. If the trendline holds, this would support a larger move up, probably up to 1360. If the trendline breaks, we will probably retrace till 50% fib.