After watching the Japanese Yen trend lower for more than 77 weeks it appears we are now starting to see the smatterings of a bottom coming in on the currency. While it may be a bit early to 'pound-the-table' I do see an interesting opportunity presenting itself within the options space. According to my very strict WCTS model, I can only consider a long position...
As we fast approach the typical seasonal top for the North American economy it shouldn't surprise us to see the anti-equity-market proxy (bonds) start to look more attractive. While I am not suggesting a trade (low reward to risk ratio on setup prevents me from considering the idea) , I do respect the fact that we may see a nice rally from current levels. Three...
This week's options expiry suggests institutions will end the week net short about 600 contracts or about 60,000 shares. They had a vested interest (net 1500 contracts) in ensuring price did not move below $36 and I see they have basically done exactly that. Considering seasonality issues, one shouldn't be surprise to see their net short exposure. The question...
After taking some time to lick my self inflicted day-trading wounds I have slowly brought my trading plan in fous and have resolved to get back on track. With recent loses in mind, I took a step back, re-wrote my trading plan and committed myself to the plan. I woke today with the thoughts of playing a rally out of the Euro close into weekly options expiry - I...
The gold sector has been rather sanguine of late and considering the lack luster performance of the underlying, that sector under performance is understandable. I believe there are areas within the gold space that are starting to offer 'value' investors some very interesting propositions. The great part of 'value' investing is we are often presented ideas when...
After taking a pause from posting trading ideas on BTC (because I am either in BTC or cash and have been sitting in cash for a while now) I thought I would take some time today to review the 1 hour BTC chart and where it might be suggesting price wants to go over the near term. First off, you will notice several 'M' tops on the chart today. That alone suggests to...
Today was not a good day for me day trading Crude Oil. I find it very helpful when i write up these publications as it helps me see where I made my mistakes and hopefully I correct poor behavior. So indulge me here as I walk you through how I ended up losing $330 on the day (sim). .Because of the holiday atmosphere (and roll issues relating to May contract...
The parabolic price spike into the full moon caught me (and I would assume many others) completely off guard. The fact that there was little to no follow through supports the notion of an anomaly and the market is going through the natural process of correcting for that event. Indeed, the 1 hour chart continues to work its way lower after a well defined top/fail...
Here is a great example of The BoT in action in a shorting situation. BTCE had just rallied back into an OTE short zone on the higher time frame charts (and was quickly rejected) so a pullback was to be expected. The BoT came alive when prices moved from 440 down into the 407 area and then rebounded back to 430 area. Looking for an ab=cd price pattern...
Today was another options expiration day and with it comes some interesting information about current market structure and where the smart money might be leaning going forward. While there was no 'freebie' Euro close rally into options expiration setup today (because Russian news keeps bidding price up) it was very interesting to see how 'they' closed USO out at...
If you believe the weekly trend has turned higher on Crude then one way to play the higher time frame trade is with The BoT. Here we ought to be long currently from 100.83 with stops still at 97.34. Should we hit 104.33 we can then move our stop to just under our original entry. Lets see if the current bull rally can hit that level. Regardless, that bullish ab=cd...
Here is a really nice example of the BoT in action. Price had been basing through the overnight session as a wide double bottom was confirmed through the pre-pit open. That bottom setup long ideas and sure enough the BoT came alive when prices corrected to 103.26. I watched price action closely and was very fortunate to act when given the opportunity (wtg Brian). ...
Every Friday we have weekly options expiry and with it comes some interesting price action. If one looks at option open interest data one can glean an idea of where 'the smart money' wants the market to finish at expiration (11AM pst). Interesting here, we see the institutions have a lot of incentive (in terms of net exposure considering they write most options)...
Sadly for those in the Bitcoin world, today was a very negative day for the cyrpto-currency. Viewers of our show last night should have left feeling the bearish tone to the current environment and indeed, that bearishness has played itself out. Technically, a rather ugly fail at the top of a well defined trend channel and a looming weekly OTE zone were two reasons...
After a nice surge of late it is probably best to zoom out a bit and see where we are on a higher time frame basis. Here is the four hour chart on Crude and a few things are jumping out at me. 1. we have hit the bullish ab=cd price pattern point D. target (103.71). If we do indeed fail here at this level, one could argue we have a potential bearish Gartley price...
On EIA day, there was little to do until that news event was out of the way. The event (and the subsequent price action) setup the bottom and once in, prices moved higher in earnest. Fortunately, I was able to get in 2 long BoT setups. I took quick profits in my combine but let the trade play out in the sim. Turns out I may have been hasty taking quick...
On news of fighting in the Ukraine government and a threat of civil war, Crude Oil price pushed through resistance. The above chart with notations is my personal BoT trade setup. The model helps me with specific levels to work with and a predefined 3:1 reward to risk ratio built into each and every trade. Specifically, the price action setup a bullish ab=cd price...
The bears have been in firm control of the BTC market for a few months now. We recently tested the long standing downward pointing price channel and have resolved bearishly. Indeed, as of my last post, I was trying to sell some BTC in that topping area and was only able to get filled on 1/3 of my order (61.8 tag, 705. tag and 78.6 tag). As a sign of just how weak...