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BFX long short ratios have broken through record lows as traders continue to anticipate a drop from 6K resistance. Sadly, when the crowd is this convinced that something is going to happen, they are almost invariably wrong. Bear tears will fuel the next price spike.

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The much hyped consolidation period in late October has proved a furphy as the bears came out to play. Bitcoin continues to grind incessantly lower and is running exactly to schedule to follow the 2014 cryptowinter. On the upside, the halvening is looming in May 2020 and will start to make its effect known in late 2019. Until then, we have an ursine playground....

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There have been four previous occasions when the volatility of Bitcoin has been this low (as measured by the width of Bollinger bands) on Bitcoin/USD. In all four cases, the subsequent price movement was upwards. In the chart below, the oscillating line shows Bollinger band width. The lower the reading, the tighter the Bollinger bands. This is consistent with...

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For the past year, Bitcoin has been caught under a downwards triangle pushing the price down. It finally seems to be finding support in the $6,000 - $6,300 range. Numerous attempts to short have only resulted in higher lows. However Bitcoin cannot afford to just track sideways as the long term trend line from the cryptowinter is rapidly catching up with it. ...

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The year long bear model is being undermined by Bitcoin's relentless fixed price push to the right hand side of the screen. If we hold stable for the next few days, the meme triangle could finally be broken.

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The past two weeks are starting to look like a period of consolidation. Bitcoin is just starting to creep out from under the bear trend line shown in red. If it can hold it's current price for the next few days, we might start to see increased volume as investors start to become aware of what may be a bottoming process.

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Here we see BTC continously slowly breaking upwards past the meme triangle (shown in red) on very light volume. But does anyone take any notice?

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This is a chart mapping the divergence of Bitfinex USDT (Tether) from Bitstamp.

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We are currently bumping the bear down trend line (show in orange) on very light volume. Next move is likely an explosive move upwards as the bear trend line is broken, or a sharp move downwards.

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Showing the candle that momentarily broke the bear trend. Price still hovering around bear line.

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Bitcoin continues to trend overall downwards, subject to the pressure of the downward trend line from peak, shown in orange. Local support lines are shown in green, with resistance lines shown in blue in the unlikely event than the orange trend line is broken.

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This chart sets out the current state of trend support and resistance lines for BTC/USD at 11am UTC on 3 October 2018. The chart is dominated by the downtrend from peak from December 2017, with local pockets of support which are consistently being eroded by the weight of the down trend line.

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This is a long term projection of Bitcoin USD through 2020 halvening, based on model of 2014 - 2017 cryptowinter