CryptoTraderMark10

CryptoTraderMark10

This is, of course, speculative and NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. It's Bitcoin so anything could happen and we could certainly break upward from here. But... IF we continue down... this is the way I'm now seeing the big picture of the market: 1. That bull run to 14K was nothing more than an over-exuberant bear market reaction rally, and the real bear market bottom...

CryptoTraderMark10

I was analyzing the weekly RSI and noticed that evert market cycle bottom has come in slightly higher than the previous one. So - just an idea for when and where we can look for this current market cycle to bottom out. I would expect it to bottom slightly higher, on the weekly RSI, than the previous one. Not financial advice.

CryptoTraderMark10

We will be above 10K or under 5K by mid-January. Blue line is the 377 EMA on 2-day....

CryptoTraderMark10

Not saying to short, necessarily, just saying that, in the crypto space, retail traders tend to have VERY short-term memories and get over-excited and assume every bounce is a trend reversal, because that's what they WANT it to be. But watch, this ideas page will now fill with "Short" ideas and calls for 4.5K or 3K. Like I said, in crypto, traders are very...

CryptoTraderMark10

We’ve had a good pump but everyone is getting VERY prematurely bullish (!!). Let’s put things into perspective… We have NOT YET created a higher high on the weekly—the primary criteria for establishing a bullish reversal. Also, look at the similarity to where we were just before the November 2018 capitulation as far as the weekly moving averages: we have found...

CryptoTraderMark10

I've labeled this "short" but PLEASE take that with a grain of salt, and I will pre-empt this quick TA with my usual get-out-of-jail-free card: No matter what point price we're at or what has happened before, Bitcoin can ALWAYS go in either direction and there will ALWAYS, in retrospect, be some kind of technical analysis-based explanation/rationalization for the...

CryptoTraderMark10

Everyone defines bear vs bull market differently. For some, we never even got into a bull market. For others, the bear market started when we broke the daily 200 SMA. For others, it started when we broke the monthly 10 SMA. It's probably best to think of it this way: IT DOESN'T MATTER BECAUSE IT'S TOTALLY SUBJECTIVE. All we're doing is trying to find a way to...

CryptoTraderMark10

There is one last sliver of hope here for the bulls, albeit a small one, in the form of the 200 simple moving average on the 4-day chart. It saved us on the last precipitous drop and it could save us here. If it doesn't hold, then I'm fully expecting us to revisit that long-term lower trend line, which would be somewhere between 6200 and 6500, depending on when...

CryptoTraderMark10

Don't get me wrong: there are MANY reasons to be bearish right now, most of them moving average-based. But I just realized that we are, at least for now and assuming the current four day candle closes (in about an hour) above 8,000, finding support on the 89 EMA on the four-day chart. If you look back, you'll see that was the moving average that we broke above...

CryptoTraderMark10

Or... to under 6K by end of the month. As always, Bitcoin is presenting pretty good arguments for both directions and I stand by what I've always said: BITCOIN CAN ALWAYS GO EITHER WAY AND THERE WILL ALWAYS, IN RETROSPECT, BE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TO EXPLAIN/RATIONALIZE WHAT HAPPENED. Bullish: We've found support on monthly 10 SMA Impending "Golden Cross" on...

CryptoTraderMark10

The BLX weekly chart with fibs drawn from the start of the bull trend breakout to the very top is painting the clearest picture right now, IMHO. We have an impending "Golden Cross", a clear falling channel, and a clean long-term lower trend line as clear support. You can see that we bounced very nicely off the .786 fib line and are now consolidating above the...

CryptoTraderMark10

All told, Bitcoin just did a 35% bounce from the 0.618 fib retracement all the way back up to the 0.382 fib line, which coincides with our May 2018 peak. It's a commendable bounce and BTC deserves a stand-O for it. However, while it would be incredible to close this daily/weekly candle above the 0.382 fib line, it's probably asking a lot of Bitcoin to do that....

CryptoTraderMark10 Updated 

Bitcoin is now sitting at a huge pivot point, which is the base of the descending triangle we capitulated from. We have a daily, 2-day, 3-day, 4-day and weekly candle close at 5 pm PST today - so this is a major inflection point and very important close today. If we can close above the 9400-9450 area I'd say we are looking really good. If not, I wouldn't say it's...

CryptoTraderMark10

President Xi - Decimator of Shorts. No words...

CryptoTraderMark10

The BLX chart volume signature is showing we are on the verge of an absolutely HUGE new shift in the market. I don't want to say which way - Bitcoin can ALWAYS go either way, although if you look at my previous posts you'll know which way I'm leaning... But when you at look at the BLX chart, you will see that volume ROSE steadily, peaking at the halfway point...

CryptoTraderMark10

Even if you don't believe in fractals, this has to be a compelling picture. As I posted here on October 9 (see "Crazy BTC Mystical Convergences") Bitcoin appears to be repeating the same exact pattern couplet it did in the previous bull-bear market cycle - a descending triangle capitulating into Adam & Eve formation - just on a smaller scale. We've now had our...

CryptoTraderMark10

Will it hold? We'll see - but I have to say it looks pretty damn convincing to me. There are of course various extremely bearish things going on right now: longs are outnumbering shorts nearly 3 to 1 (should be more like 1:1 ratio for a bullish move), crypto fear level is only at 40 (should be more like 15 for a big bullish move), we are below all major moving...

CryptoTraderMark10

Last week I published an idea titled, "Crazy BTC Mystical Convergences", in which I pointed out that BTC was repeating the same exact pattern set it did in the last Bull-Bear market cycle - a descending triangle capitulating into an Adam & Eve recovery - only a smaller scale: ie, a "fractal". We've had our descending triangle and capitulation, and our Adam, and...