DerrickGibson

DerrickGibson Updated 

Bitcoin is printing a bearflag on the daily with a huge "fuck you, bulls" candle yesterday. If you looked at my last post you'll see I was expecting a dead cat bounce to 6.8k - 7k. I now believe bulls are running out of time to put together a bounce, and if we don't see a bounce soon, the shooting star wick we got into the 7k range might have been the "bounce"....

DerrickGibson

Bears have delivered a very powerful rejection from 8.5K down to 6K. I am not expecting the 6K level to break without a dead cat bounce first. I have taken partial profit on my short from 8.2k and opened a small long at 6.1k. My target for the dead cat bounce is between 6.8k and 7k. At that price I will close my long and add more to my short. 5k remains the target.

DerrickGibson

Bulls case: Bitcoin has set 5 tops. $1, $32, $210, $1150 and $20k. The average time between each top is 621 days. The average percentage gain above the previous top is 1400%. If this pattern repeats again, BTC should hit 280k by September 2019. Bears case: If 5k doesn't hold and we test 3k, the long term trendline is broken. All bets are off technically. Testing...

DerrickGibson

I am still comfortably holding my short position. If we see a bear cycle similar to the most recent one, we could easily reach 5k on this push down. Notice the price action is very similar thus far to the previous bear cycle.

DerrickGibson

BTC will need to put together a major rally soon to prevent further downside. If the 6.8k level doesn't hold (major support) the chances of seeing new lows becomes exponentially greater as the 6k level is highly unlikely to support BTC for a 4th time. Higher timeframe analysis shows that bears have complete control of the daily and weekly trends. With the weekly...

DerrickGibson

I typically use log scale to chart Bitcoin but if you turn on the linear scale you'll see that we're in a VERY interesting position here. We're above both the downtrend and uptrend lines. It will be very interesting where we go from here. As usual I am siding with the bears.

DerrickGibson

Bitcoin seems to be confirming the "death cross" of the weekly 26 EMA and 50 MA. As you can see, when this happened in 2014 the next move was to test the weekly 100 MA, with the ultimate bottom set at the 200 MA. If we see a similar pattern here the next major support level will be at the 100 MA - $5,000.

DerrickGibson

While everyone is fomoing into this bull run my broad view on the market remains bearish. I'll break down the reasoning behind my outlook with a couple of facts. To establish a bull market, Bitcoin needs to start making higher lows and higher highs. This is the most simple way to break down the complex price action. So far we have seen the high at 20k, low at 6k,...

DerrickGibson

Short

DerrickGibson

I am scaling into a short position here on BTC as we have 3 major resistance levels all converging between 7.6k - 7.8k. We have the 100 MA, the previous trendline that failed to support the price and the top of the dead cat bounce.

DerrickGibson

Bitcoin definitely looks bullish... if you invert the chart :P

DerrickGibson

The hopium is strong. Bulls defending the trendline but losing ground.

DerrickGibson

Longs proceed with caution..

DerrickGibson

I have 3 reasons to be bearish on BTC at this time. 1st: Hidden Bearish Divergence. Look at the 4 hour RSI . Price has made a lower high relative to 6800, but RSI has made a higher high. 2nd: Rising wedge . This is not a bullish pattern and is likely to break to the downside after buyers are exhausted. 3rd: Longs still heavily outnumber shorts according to...

DerrickGibson

BTC price is in consolidation after the major leg down, we will see a major breakout soon. I am biased bearish here as there's potential for a long squeeze.

DerrickGibson

I am expecting the current bear flag to resolve to the downside and break out of the rising wedge. This will set us up for the next major leg down if we don't hold support at 6100. This will be the 4th time testing the 6k support zone and I don't expect it to hold. Target remains 5k.

DerrickGibson

Expecting this rising wedge to break down soon. 4 hour MACD has crossed bearish, bulls have lost momentum. Target is 5k.

DerrickGibson

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