This is a follow up to my short play posted last week Looks like a prefect 12345 impulse has completed. There should be a retrace now, and looks to be underway. Pullbacks to support zones could be long entries. BUT consider the Holiday week, and US banks are closed on Monday and Tuesday. So I am NOT taking any trades here. I DID close my shorts and wait until...
This is continuation of my SP500 study. The downtrend continues, and looks to have made a wave 3 down. I think wave 3 is just about done, so we should see a bit of a bounce soon. But I am thinking the bounce will be a bull trap (wave 4) and then resume downard momentum. Given the Holidays and Year End rebalancing, there might be some wild moves for next couple...
Quick short term outook with support zones worth watching. This is a follow up to my expected top (which was surpassed by a blow off top and thus the large retrace)
BTC pulled back pretty fast and hard from the exepcted top around 4200. Now it looks like we might be either done with correction, or close. The ABC I have is rather sketchy, it could just be 'A' thus far and then B and C yet to come. But mostly I wanted post the Support and Resistance zones I see.
This is an update in my ongoing study and trades of USDJPY . I study UJ as the ''barometer'' but I most often trade OTHER xxxJPY pairs. So if UJ is dropping, and AU is also weak, then I trade AJ. Or if UJ is climbing and say GU is strong, then I trade GJ. This current plot is based on the assumption that the red 7.618 fib extension needs to be hit. That...
Just posting an other example of prefect Elliot Wave movements precisely in sync wth Fibonacc extensions. Each 12345 impulse wave adheres to the Fib increments, and is followed by a clear ABC correction. We may have topped at the 8.618 extension, but that looks like a wave 3, with 4 and 5 yet to complete the last impulse. Lets see if it plays out.
Quick plot with adjusted zones , in follow up to previous analysis :
We have completed a vigorour 5 wave impulse, and awaiting the requisite correction. The first leg down was a typical ABC correction, but it was not deep enough. The bounce from that ABC did seem to be valid until it faded out at a lower high. MORE IMPORTANLY, the bounce did NOT show 'impulsive' type behaviour. The most common ABC correction to a 12345 is for wC...
BTC bulls painted a strong impluse wave up, including a strong wave 5. Now it needs to retrace, probably in a typical ABC fashion. I see a few important prices/zones worth watching closely. If the retrace bounces at first zone, then we are correcting only the wave V. If the retrace goes to the -.618, would be a prefectly acceptable ABC. If the retrace goes below...
Short term plot to look for short entries. Red zones are of interest for entry, Green zones for possible Take Profits. FOMC rate decision was the big news today. It was ''less dovish'' than the market expected. I expect USD strength until End of Year at least. . . Background: My EU shorting adventure began in early 2018 while looking for a top around...
This is an update to my previous plot, which was before the FOMC rate decsion: Now that FOMC has made their move, the result was ''less dovish'' than the market had expected. Thus risk sentiment is swinging more towards caution, so Stocks down, Gold up, Yen strong. I plot UJ because it is the cleanest, but obviosly all other Yen pairs will follow it various...
This fib externsion series has defined/guided Bitcoin's moves since 7400. I have been watching this fib since that peak. It's extensions have been part of all my Ideas posted since then. Each line has been relevant so far, and if not yet, it will be on the way back up. The bad news is that this type of fib series usually ends at the 9.618 extension. We are...
This is a follow up to my bigger picture shorting plan linked below. Looks like we have finished an ABC to make for wave (4) correction. Now looking for a 12345 structure to start the wave (5) down This should be the final leg down before a reasonable correction upwards. The bigger picture of this plan: . . . Background: I am a longer term AUD bear,...
Quick plot to watch some resistance zones for possible continuation of downtrend. NOTE: This week is FOMC rate decision. So hopefully this move will be done before Wednesday. . . . Background: My EU shorting adventure began in early 2018 while looking for a top around 1.2500 As that top was forming, I saw the Fibs giving me some clues for down move to...
This is a follow up to my last short term outlook, looking for wave 5 of the impulse: We appear to have an extended wave 5 in progress (or is about done). Truly implusive wave 5's shoud have a 5-wave substructure. Thus far this wave 5 looks to have one more leg to fit the substructure. Also, this impulse has already surpassed the wave 4 down, and is very...
I am doubtful we have bottomed, but would be happy to be proven wrong. This is what bulls need to do in order to convince me (and presumably other bulls) that we bottomed above 3k. We look to have started an impulse up, with a pretty strong wave (3), now working on wave (4). If it bounces where it should, and procees to wave (5) being making a new local high,...
UJ is in a steep decline, thanks to stocks tanking and Gold rising. Risk off sentiment is strong right now, and should remain so until the FOMC decision Wednesday. And the FOMC decision and comments may actually make is WORSE if they are hawkish and looking to hike more than once in 2019. For now UJ looks to be working on a wave (3), which is nearly complete and...
Netflix and other tech stocks are marching to their own tune somewhat. While the overall market sentiment does weigh on this stock, its moves are somewhat independant. So this Fib study includes short term and long term Fibonocci extensions to theorize on important zones. The green zones are of great interest to me. Ideal buy would be the LOWER zone around...