This is a followup to my last call for an AU move up: The US-China trade talks are fluttering through the news. Last update was supposedly China will to provide some ''concessions''. But next update might be Trump debunking and insulting that report. Who knows? But if the move is to continue up, I see two distinct possible pathways. . . . . Background...
This is an ongoing study of Gold . Currently expecting some consolidation for a micro wave 4, looking to retest recent high of its wave 3. Below current price is a zone defined by two very important Fibonacci Extensions. The Important Fibs: The orange 11.089 extension is from this fib: yes, believe it or not, a move from 254.40 to 340.45 in 1999 was the...
This Idea assumes the Brexit situation remains uncertain Brexit complications have been weighing heavy on the Pound. PM May's position is under question, and many of her cabinet have resigned. Thus the massive leg down over the last 24 hours. Now I am looking for a bounce to short. Red zones should be resistance to watch for signs of reversal. Green zones...
This is a follow up to my previous plan calling for $55 bottom: Target was hit but where is the bounce? This idea is a microscopic study of the bounce (if it is to happen). If price hits the 4.236 extension before going ANY lower, then there is a chance 55 was the bottom. Let see what happens over the last 2 days of the week.... Background : My study of ...
This is a followup to my longer term outlook posted here: This massive drop was a little beyond my previous expectation, and the steep slope is quite alarming. But I think we are nearing a temporary bottom, and probably about to do a ''Dead Cat Bounce'' for a wave 4. Then I expect one last dip for before any real recovery. The green zones are where I see...
I do NOT trade this commodity, but saw the spike and just had to check it out. I realize that seasonality implies demand this time of year, but that was a 40% + spike in a few days. So of course it came back down quickly, and is starting to bounce. But my Fib analysis points to one more leg down, thus my short Ideas. And standard Elliot Wave theory implies an ABC...
EU short fired, bad Brexit news Just a quick plot done in a hurry. Will fine tune targets if move proceeds. This is a follow up top my long calls Background: My EU shorting adventure began in early 2018 while looking for a top around 1.2500 As that top was forming, I saw the Fibs giving me some clues for down move to start Once it started dropping, I...
I am a Gold Bear, have been riding it down since 1238 based on this plan: It had a previous bounce at 1214 per this plan but then it died again. Looking for a temporary bottom here soon. Not sure how much of a bounce but there should be one. Let see how it plays out.
Looking for EU bounce to continue a little higher. There is still a partial gap from the weekend. Besides that motivation, the waves seem to indicate one more push up. Lets see how this plays out. Background: My EU shorting adventure began in early 2018 while looking for a top around 1.2500 As that top was forming, I saw the Fibs giving me some clues for...
This is a follow up to my recent long call from 1.283xx GU looks to have some continued strength based on Brexit news. Lets see how this plays out. Background: I am a Dollar Bull and Pound Bear, and will remain so until BOE starts talking about rate hikes or PM May starts presenting a positive and plausible Brexit scenario. My GU adventure started with a...
There were two pieces of news reporting that top US and Chinese officials will meet this week to negotiate. The initial news release caused a spike in AU and a rise in stocks. I expect this to continue for rest of week, unless the news is debunked. As well, AU has made pretty good retrace so it might time for a bounce. So I have plotted two possible pathways up...
I am an EU bear, rode it down all this way. So I am not longing, but If I were a bull, this would be THE first scalp to consider. This COULD be the start of a serious retrace, if there is good news out of Italy. At the least, all of the fibs indicate the end of multiple waves, each of will need to retrace to some extent. Kudos to anyone who has gone long.
AU looks to have completed a 5 wave impulse move up and ready for correction. The Red zones are possible short entry opps, where I will be looking for a reversal pattern. The Green zones are possible take profit areas, where I will be closing most of position and letting some ride to next possible support. Background: I am a longer term AUD bear, anticipating a...
GU opened with week with a large gap thanks to Brexit news. It tried to fill it but only got to the 38.2% of it, then fell away hard. But it looks to have hit a bottom for now, and should retrace some extent. I am a USD bull and GU bear, so I am not longing, but if I were a bull, this would be THE place to start building a long position. This long idea is a...
GU gapped down to open the week, based on Brexit news. Watching the gap-fill attempt to enter short soon. Background : I am a Dollar Bull and Pound Bear, and will remain so until BOE starts talking about rate hikes or PM May starts presenting a positive and plausible Brexit scenario. My GU adventure started with a search for top of uptrend around Sept 20th...
As any BCH trader knows, we have the ''fork'' coming in a few days. There was an initial rally, and then some in-fighting in the BCH camp caused a dip. Evaluating that dip, I think we have one more small leg down before the climb.
This is a followup to my bottom call on October 30th: Then came the mid-term election which may have caused the dip in first place (uncertainty). Wall Street was apparently quite happy with the election results. Although my guess is that money was waiting on the sidelines, looking to scoop up stocks based on the election. Now the Index price is at recent high,...
Nice volatility this week: US midterm elections yesterday and FOMC today. The FOMC event should NOT be much a market mover, no change expected. The election result of Democrats winning control of the House will have longer term implications. Technically speaking: The move down looks like a wave 3 may have completed. Looking for a wave 4 up into London Open, then...