Gold is is an uptrend channel. Possible that Minute wave IV is over.
We had strong resistance in the 1320-23 area (38.2% pullback) .
Usually gold is weak before a FOMC meeting (Dunno why ?) ... Commercials still Net Shorts ...
Gold can rise with Commercials Net Shorts if you look at this chart from...
The weekly GOLD chart is really interesting as we have now this last week reached the neckline for the massive inverse H&S.
The chart should mean that this week we have possibly reach the area where price stops for this run.
BUT it is still possible that we reach 1370 next week or even break the neckline.
Logically, i think we are du for a pullback and maybe a...
Gold looks ready to break this down trend line from 2011.
It failed to break it on several occasions particularly last November after Trump's Election (Thanks to the PPT).
This time can be the right time.
The TSI indicator is showing us a clear Inverse and shoulder with a Breakout, a succesful Backtest and it's value is actually above 0 on the weekly.
The ratio of Gold/DXY is telling us something:
A falling $USD is baked in the cake. This will be a global driver of inflation in all assets, including commodities, into 2023.
Gold bottomed one year before the $USD 15 year super cycle peak in 2002 also.
We actually have a breakout on the weekly and the TSI indicator is showing us an Inverse Head and Shoulder...
The short covering saw the Outside Reversals last week. This is how these cycle lows forms.
- Inverse Head and Shoulders
- From an EW perspective: Leading diagonal (impulsive) for wave 1
Pullback at 50% Fib. for wave 2 and a nice reversal.
- Hurst cycle (10 weeks) Low at the Backtest = Buy
No cigar yet so let's see if...
It is possible that gold is in a “Leading Diagonal” (impulsive wave) .
The alternate count will be an A-B-C correction …
c = a = 1245
c = 1.618 a = 1237
Disclaimer: chart for informational and educational purposes only.
Considering the divergence with the miners, it is possible that the last action in gold took place in a triangle and that the miners made a bull flag.
IF the count is correct, the miners should catch up gold very soon ...
Gold needs to break the 200 DMA at 1261-62 and GDX breaks above 25 decisively.
Looking at my...
If this breakout holds, I think it confirms the beginning of a new Bull Market in commodities
in general which will subsequently result in real price inflation, thereby fueling Precious Metals
to unknown heights .
Disclaimer: trade at your own risk
A truncated fifth wave is often followed by a swift and sharp reversal ... :)
The world gold community should probably fasten their seat belts now, and get ready for an end of the year upside ride!
Some Bag Holders will continue to wait for 1180 and price below 1000 ...
It is possible that we had a truncated fifth wave to end this pullback.
Since last week, we are still climbing higher here and it looks like we are struggling to take the 200 DMA at 1270.
On the daily chart, last week we had a Bullish Harami. We can see five waves up from 1245 to 1274. Now we can have a small pullback to the 1260 area … or not.
All in all, these...
The pullback is still looking a an a-b-c correction (zig-zag).
On the weekly, the 50 DMA is at 1229 and will probably provide support for the next leg down to end this correction.
Last week, we made a consolidation for Minor wave 4.
Look for termination when wave5 has completed at least five fractals in lower time frame and is in a coincidence of price and time....
In my opinion, we are still in a pullback since the beginning of July. The correction looks like an a-b-c (zig-zag).
We are actually in the last wave to end Primary 2. Possible Fib. retracement from the top are
1250 (38.2%), 1211 (50%) and 1174 (61.8%). Actually, 1240 equals 162% of wave-a ... On a lower time frame, we can see a Descending Broadening Wedge ending...
The triangle is still in play. The consolidation is taking the form of a Complex Correction (w-x-y).
Gold can drop to the 1310 area to complete wave "e" of this triangle. As long as we stay above 1300,
this structure is still valid.
Gold and Silver are now sitting on the lower trend line probably to shake some weak hands ...
I am expecting a resolution of this...