Goose96

Goose96

The greenback looks set to add to its gains against the euro after yesterday’s sticky US CPI print. Positive employment data from the euro zone and in line with expectations Q4 GDP prints yesterday also did little to spark confidence in the euro. The euro managed to push the pair above the 61.8% Fibo retracement level, 1.096, from the downward wave following the...

Goose96

The upward momentum on the DXY after January’s positive non-farm payroll print on the 3rd of February seems to have subsided for the time being. The DXY managed to test its 50-day MA and touch the green 23.6% Fibo retracement level at 104 but these resistance levels have held their ground. The 23.6 % Fibo also coincides satisfyingly with the neckline of the...

Goose96

The rand had a tough week at the office last week which saw the local unit depreciate roughly 2.37% against the dollar. Risk-on sentiment gained some enthusiasm following Powell’s speech on Tuesday which hit the right notes regarding the Fed’s self-proclaimed victory over inflation. The sentiment however soured after US CPI numbers for the month of December were...

Goose96

The dollar strength following Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls print continued in yesterday’s session which allowed the USDZAR pair to break through the blue 50% Fibo retracement rate of 17.61. The pair seems to have lost some upward momentum after hitting a high of 17.70. The rate of 17.61 will swing from a resistance to a support and a break below it will allow...

Goose96

Time to reassess my position on the rand. I expected the 50-day MA rate of 17.15 to hold support for the pair during Wednesday’s turbulent session but Powell’s dovish comments regarding the Fed’s “successful fight against inflation” sent the dollar packing across the board. Equity markets staged an aggressive rally since Powell failed to decisively comment when...

Goose96 Updated 

The upward momentum seems to be fading as we await the open of the US session. The orange 23.6% Fibo retracement at 17.50 is a strong resistance and psychological rate for the pair and I don’t see it giving way before the major Fed event tomorrow. Over the slightly longer term I’m bearish on the rand after the pair broke above the key 50-day MA level at 17.15 and...

Goose96

The noise pollution for the market is extreme this week, from interest rate announcements to non-farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI's. Based off technicals, the dollar is looking rather perky at the moment. The DXY seemed to find support off its 61.8% Fibo retracement level, from the 2022 gains, of 101,841. I suspect a move higher towards the 50-day MA level of...

Goose96

The economic calendar is wild this week so I thought it would be best to do a deep fundamental dive into the USDZAR . All the attention will be on the Federal reserve tomorrow and whether or when they will pause their rate hikes. We need to look past the hype around the interest rate and the “pivot" narrative. Focus should however be on how the markets will cope...

Goose96

The rand managed to pull the pair to a daily close below the 50-day MA, yesterday, off the back of a broadly weaker dollar. There was no data driving the weakness in the greenback but it seems the weakness is stemming from the “plausible soft landing” narrative and the stable decline in US 10-year bond yield since the beginning of the year. Today’s calendar has...

Goose96

The pair broke to the upside of the 50-day MA yesterday despite minimal loses in the DXY which shows that the move was largely based off rand weakness, yesterday. The 50-day MA will swing from a resistance to a support rate and I'm looking to catch a buy entry off the re-test of the 50-day MA, currently at 17.15. Short-term take profit zone between the 38.2% fibo...

Goose96

The rand managed to pull the pair below the 200-day MA, currently at 16.82, last week Thursday following the US CPI print. The pair is however finding support around its 200-day MA and the dollar strength in today's early morning session has seen the pair blast up to the blue 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.12. The macro risk-on factors mentioned below are rand...

Goose96

The DXY and the US 10-year yield fell sharply following Friday’s better than expected non-farm payrolls report for the month of December 2021 which saw the pair reject the 50-day MA at 17.30 as well as the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement level of 17.44. The dollar started this week on the back foot in the local session which has allowed the rand to test the...

Goose96

The USD/ZAR pair seems to be in an ABC corrective wave pattern after completing a 5-wave impulse that commenced in April this year. Following last week's presidency scare, the rand has been able to pull the pair back below the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.50. Positively for the rand, it managed to keep the pair below the 50-day MA resistance rate of 17.74 and...

Goose96

Markets seem to be betting on a Fed pivot which has seen a pullback in the DXY and the US 10-year yield but only time will tell if the DXY has truly topped out. For now, the pullback of the greenback presents an opportunity for the ZAR to stage a minor recovery. I'm expecting the ZAR to pull the pair lower into the range between the top of the third impulse wave...

Goose96

The DXY let off some steam following yesterday's relatively upbeat US GDP data for Q2 which opened the window for some ZAR strength. The DXY's recent rally saw the greenback gain roughly 4.4% from the past 10 days but the yearly high of 109.27 remains intact for now. All the focus will however be on Powell's Jackson hole speech later today and markets may have to...

Goose96

Big break below the 200 week MA last week was major but the rand is trading in overbought zones. Possible retracement back to 14.50 before another break lower. Low CPI results from SA this week could however be rand positive.

Goose96

Inverted hammer forming on the 1day candle. Is the ke dezemba rand party over?

Goose96

Possible retracement to around 15.50 before a move towards 14.60 in the new year. Waiting for a crossover buy signal on the MACD but the indicator should turn positive soon. Elliott wave oscillator is expected to hit the upper downward trend line before breaking the wedge to the downside.