By Andria Pichidi - June 14, 2019 The IEA has cut its 2019 estimate for oil demand in its latest monthly report, blaming trade tensions and the associated consequences on the outlook for global growth. The agency stated that the worsening trade outlook is “a common theme across all regions,” and that “the consequences for oil demand are becoming apparent.” USOIL...
By Andria Pichidi - June 13, 2019 The Dollar has held net steady versus the Euro and Yen, paring intraday losses in the case against the latter, while AUDCAD dropped quite sharply amid the juxtaposition of record lows in Australian sovereign debt yields and a Loonie-supporting 2.5%-plus rally in oil prices. AUDCAD was showing an over 0.6% loss heading into the...
By Andria Pichidi - June 11, 2019 EURGBP Sterling vaulted higher on the UK perky wage data, which provided interbank and short-term speculative participants to put a squeeze on short positions, especially with the data coming after BoE MPC hawk Saunders reminded markets that prevailing Brexit uncertainty won’t necessarily stop the central bank from tightening...
USOil pulled back from one-week highs of $54.74, dipping briefly under $54.00 to $53.97 before heading back over $54.35 into the US open. The contract has recovered from last week’s near five-month low of $50.60, helped by the apparent cancellation of US tariffs on Mexican goods, and prospects for the extension of OPEC production cuts through year end. Russia is...
By Andria Pichidi - June 10, 2019 EURUSD Optimism for a Fed rate cut “soon” soared last week after Friday’s jobs report drastically undershot assumptions. Trade frictions also remained in focus with the ongoing rift between the US and China, and the impending tariff on Mexico. But there were also some hopes for a rapprochement, and indeed a deal was made with...
By Andria Pichidi - June 5, 2019 EURJPY, H4 and Daily Eurozone retail sales declined in the April reading, correcting -0.4% m/m, after stagnating in March. The annual rate fell back to 1.5% y/y from 2.0% y/y, which together with the deceleration in producer price inflation to 2.6% y/y from 2.9% y/y, will add to the arguments of the doves at tomorrow’s council...
UK May construction PMI came in much weaker than expected with a headline reading of 48.6 , dropping sharply from April’s 50.5. The median expectation had been for an unchanged 50.5 outcome. The indicator is at 48.6, the weakest since snow-disrupted conditions of March 2018. The construction PMI has been at sub-50.0 readings, indicating contraction in the sector,...
By Andria Pichidi - June 1, 2019 Trade and geopolitics will continue to dominate the headlines into June along with PM May’s official resignation on Friday. Top of the agenda next week will be the RBA and ECB policy meetings, but a lot of attention will also be on the contemporaneous data on the May US Jobs report, the global PMI outcomes and the European Q1...
By Andria Pichidi - May 31, 2019 Sterling has hit fresh trend lows against the Dollar, Euro and Yen, among other currencies. EURGBP buying has been the latest focus of pound selling, with the cross popping upward by 20-30 pips in making a 4-month high at 0.8866. Cable carved out a fresh 5-month low at 1.2581 late yesterday, and looks set to extend this. Given...
CABLE - The pair’s five-month low seen last week at 1.2605 has been tested broken and breached today as the 1.2600 handle gives way to It’s gone quite on the Brexit front, at least in terms of substantive developments, with the Conservative Party presently seeing a lot of jostling for position of candidates to replace Prime Minister May, who will step down...
By Andria Pichidi - May 30, 2019 The USDIndex slipped slightly following the mix of data, where Q1 GDP came in slightly better than consensus, jobless claims were slightly higher, and the trade deficit was wider than expected. EURUSD edged over 1.1140 from 1.1135, while USDJPY was fractionally lower at 109.65 from over 109.70. Equity futures continue to indicate...
A moderate risk-off theme has become re-established in global markets, which pushed Treasury and other top-tier sovereign yields lower and hit stock markets while buoying the Yen in forex markets. USDJPY ebbed moderately lower as the Japanese currency picked up a safe-haven bid, breaking free of what had been a narrow orbit of the 109.50 level. A two-week low was...
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Eurozone Q1 GDP confirmed at 0.4% q/q in the second reading, up from 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter 2018. There still isn’t a full breakdown, but it is pretty clear now that domestic demand was the main driving factor, partly boosted by special factors like mild weather, the later timing of Easter, but also stock piling activity ahead of the initial Brexit...
A trade deal with China isn’t close, according to a senior Trump administration official cited by Axios¹. The unnamed source said that the differences between the two sides are so great that in his view there won’t be a resolution before the end of the year. While there have been conciliatory-sounding remarks from both sides over the last day, doubtlessly intended...
EURCHF, H4 The Euro has traded generally firmer, recouping ground lost against the Yen and Swiss franc yesterday as markets unwind safe haven premiums following conciliatory-sounding remarks from President Trump. EURJPY is showing a gain of 0.5%, making it the biggest mover out of the main dollar pairings and associated cross rates. EURGBP earlier printed an...
By Andria Pichidi - May 13, 2019 Bitcoin spiked to $7,143 on open, breaking the $7,000 barrier and reaching 8-month highs. Other cryptocurrencies saw a similar price action. This has been concomitant with a declines in global equity markets following frosty rhetoric from both US and Chinese officials. Hence this again rekindles the believe that cryptocurrencies...
By Andria Pichidi - May 8, 2019 GBPJPY remained heavy amid safe haven demand for the Yen but also amid a weak Pound on Brexit fatigue. The low reflected safe haven demand after Wall Street saw its worst day in 2 months, as markets continued to digest looming tariff hikes on imported Chinese goods to the US. Markets are anticipating the visit of Chinese...