Ian_Carsen

Ian_Carsen

Any surprises at the ECB policy meeting and press conference in Frankfurt on 7-26-18 could send EUR/USD rocketing in one direction or another. Also of intense interest is what the dollar is doing obviously, it is still range bound as shown in the attached idea.

Ian_Carsen Updated 

Hello friends, the bitcoin price recently broke a significant long-term trend line at the same time it broke an important trendline on the RSI. The last 3 rallies have seen retraces of previous declines by 0.5 and 0.618 respectively. Thus, in going with a strengthening market, if price is able to break above the current resistance at 6800, I expect the rise to the...

Ian_Carsen

Friends, as we can see there is a large triangle on this chart. To me, it appears price is most likely to break upwards. The Dow has lagged all other major US averages. I am not necessarily recommending a trade based on this chart, it is for your curiosity only.

Ian_Carsen Updated 

Hello Friends, Gold is back at the triangle boundary. Gold is very dollar correlated. Dollar may be continuing to complete its current rounded turn, but it may also suddenly rally through to new highs. Currently it appears gold has a good chance of rebounding and I am currently long again...I seem to enjoy knife catching lol. However, I am using trendlines and...

Ian_Carsen

A break one way or the other should occur in the near future, and this should be tradeable. On the daily view we see we are in the middle of a potential "macro" formation. If I had to bet, considering the bear market and the current trend, I would bet on the side of continuation to the downside. But there's no point in risking being wrong when one doesn't have to!

Ian_Carsen

Hello friends, As news leaked about concrete plans to put tariffs on 200B worth of Chinese goods in an escalating trade war, equity futures plunged. But this is not new news. "Tuesday's action makes good on a threat President Donald Trump made last month. He directed Lighthizer to identify $200 billion in Chinese goods for tariffs if China retaliated against US...

Ian_Carsen Updated 

Hello friends, gold has been hit very hard recently. RSI Shows an extreme oversold reading on the daily, at the same level at which price has reversed twice before. the Gold price is also at the boundary of an ascending triangle, and furthermore at the 0.5 retrace level. In addition, it does appear the dollar may be topping out for the time being--at least it's a...

Ian_Carsen

*I tried to draw trendlines on all the comparison symbols but TradingView just isn't having it. Sorry!* Hello Friends, the Russell 2000 has begun a new uptrend after breaking its previous trend line and making a higher low and higher high. The rest of the US indices are in consolidation. If recent history is a guide, the Nasdaq, which may or may not be breaking...

Ian_Carsen

A break out from this formation, whether long or short, should be of interest if the past is any indication

Ian_Carsen Updated 

Although equities are getting short term overbought, I think another tremendous multi-month run is possible. Planning long, in fact kicking myself for not getting in Nasdaq 100 futures 4 days ago. Was following Dow, :cry: Technically, dow just broke through the apex of the large symmetric triangle. This is indicative that the formation is, at least in my eyes, no...

Ian_Carsen

The US Dollar is at a crossroads. It seems most likely it will complete a rounding turn and head downwards to form the beginnings of an inverse head and shoulder pattern. However, a sudden continuation upwards is always possible. In any case, dollar declines should be good for gold (which is also at a potential reversal point) and other commodities, and the Euro...

Ian_Carsen

Hello Friends, as we can see, the Euro has recently halted its decline relative to the dollar at the 0.5 retrace from long-term support and is building a small descending triangle at this important support level. As always, it is impossible to know for sure which way price will move when it resumes trending, however, this is a descending triangle in a downtrend at...

Ian_Carsen

Hello friends, as can be seen, the Nasdaq futures bounced perfectly off the 0.382 retrace and are now forming a diamond pattern. It looks like momentum is shifting to the bullish side after recent declines. However, this building attempt to go higher could fail and declines could resume. In either case, breaking the boundaries of the diamond pattern would be a...

Ian_Carsen

Quite frankly, the triangular setups in bitcoin have been spectacular! Here we have a small falling wedge and 2 potentially more significant formations, a diamond formation and a large rising wedge!. Some speculate that players will wait until the futures expire tomorrow but unless market goes the current wedge route, it is running out of room! Some action is...

Ian_Carsen Updated 

Hello friends, given recent price action, bitcoin failed to actually touch the longer-term trend line below although it reached that level and rebounded nicely. It has also shown that it is still in an uptrend by failing to retrace lower than 50% of the previous upward cycle. Given the fact that sentiment is quite bearish, I think there's a good possibility for a...

Ian_Carsen

Markets are correlated. US equities have been staving off another major decline for the last few months, and conversely, precious metals--although impacted by a rising dollar--remain long-term bullish. We can see a nice wedge-type formation here of bullish implications. It's full target is about 40% above current prices, but then full targets are not necessarily...

Ian_Carsen Updated 

Dear friend, coinbase's data makes the symmetric triangle consolidation very clear. A break one way or the other can be expected in the near future. The actual extent of the move is of course unknown, but I have provided tentative targets. On the downside I think the long-term logarithmic line might be in play, and on the upside a bit over $10K seems likely. Note...

Ian_Carsen

Price typically breaks one way or the other from these formations. I consider this a good short opportunity and expect price to break down to the long-term logarithmic line in bold below. However, price could also break up, and this would be a valid trade as well, I would just be sure to protect profits more vigilantly on the up side for now.