IlliquidAsset

IlliquidAsset

Previous Wave count proved incorrect. New analysis shows that the high in December was the completion of the Impulse Wave, not the top of Wave III. From here, 4 hour momentum suggests an exhaustive spike lower should present itself soon. As long as the Elliot Wave Oscillator does not print a new low to coincide with this, it will provide a good buying...

IlliquidAsset Updated 

Triangle pattern forming, but given the divergence in Primary and Cycle waves, it is hard to determine direction after Christmas. If the triangle completes, then it can either break to the upside signaling strength in the short term with a continuation of the larger cycle's third wave. This wave was originally believed to have completed on the 15th in the...

IlliquidAsset

Intermediate time scale wave analysis is difficult due to global political interruptions, or rather perhaps supercycle wave inflection points. Fibonacci points the EUR/USD to just south of parity, but we believe speculators will use the psychological boundary as a point for short term support. Look for upward spikes as we close in on 1.00 as traders go long in...

IlliquidAsset

The first movement of the impulse wave, which started in Q4 2012, had a movement of about 26,000 pips from about 77.xx to 103.xx. Wave 5 should mirror this movement, which if it began in the summer of 2016 around 98, would bring us to the 124 area. This would certainly be a double top, and macroeconomic headwinds will likely demand continued strength. From...

IlliquidAsset

While global risk-off attitude has weakened the position of each of these currencies on institutional balance sheets for a more diversified stance, the case for strong US and UK economies makes these the logical choice for long term currency safe havens. I am looking to hedge my USD/JPY and GBP/JPY positions because the carry trade has taken a breather for now. ...

IlliquidAsset

As the Euro area weakens, UK exports across the Channel are rising. GBP is not the best play against the JPY, however as a carry trade, it is safer than the NZD and AUD IMO. It is still a global "risk on" play, so as volatility in oil continues, expect violent moves in the pair. I suspect that this recent drop is coming from hedge funds raising cash rather than...

IlliquidAsset

While recent declines in commodities and oil bode well for Japanese exports, internal troubles cannot keep the BOJ from easing monetary policy further. Many speculate that this may come as early as the next meeting in January. Additionally, oil has put pressure on the USD, although this will have little effect on US output and a positive effect on consumer...