Jfielder_strat

Jfielder_strat

The peak in Oil marked the peak in inflation, which means if it goes any higher, above $115-$120, the fed will be forced to manually tighten financial conditions spiraling the economy into recession and the stock market into a prolonged bear market. If somehow oil drops under $95 it should ease conditions and allow for a softer slowdown. Crude oil prices are...

Jfielder_strat

From 0.39% to 3.20%, bond yields made their largest climb in history. This kind of move and at these levels, bond yields are also tightening financial conditions. Bond yields have also circumvented some of the inflationary pressures. However, they must come down to stimulate growth and prevent an ugly recession.

Jfielder_strat

As the dollar is breaks away from highs set in 2017, inflation, both year-over-year and month-over-month have slowed down. As the dollar climbs higher is tightens financial conditions circumventing some of the inflationary pressures.

Jfielder_strat

I know the Macro's Bad but this is some beautiful bullish Capitulation. Reversal?

Jfielder_strat

For the Past 50 years, lower rates suppress dollar strength. Why? Because lower rates stimulate investment

Jfielder_strat

The previous test of $104 was rejected. That rejection was characterized by multiple bearish capitulations on the daily chart and a bearish divergence on the RSI

Jfielder_strat

In the early 80's the dollar broke out following a peak in growth and sustained a 4 year rally. Once growth stabilized the dollar collapsed. If you're in stocks or Crypto, you must know the consequence of a Dollar breakout.

Jfielder_strat

Post GFC, the dollar seems to rise following the peak-trough in ISM manufacturing growth.

Jfielder_strat

The secular trend of Fed fund rates matches the secular trend of the Dollar. Rate hikes never undo the effects of lower rates.

Jfielder_strat

The relationship between dollars and crude oil is usually inverse. If the DXY breaks out of the local range, it should crash oils prices.

Jfielder_strat

In the 2000's stocks did well when the dollar weakened. Even a sideways, tight consolidation in DXY is bullish for stocks.

Jfielder_strat

In the 80's, a surging dollar for the stock market meant risk off while a falling dollar meant risk on.

Jfielder_strat

Although the Dollar is inches from breaking out of a 5 year trend, it is still within the long secular trend of lower highs and lower lows. The opportunity for Equities and Crypto lie between the local top and the pivot lower.

Jfielder_strat

When the VIX breaks out it doesn't just hurt Equities, Crypto also responds.

Jfielder_strat

The Dollar continues to show strength. As the denominator of all assets, this breakout should rumble markets for a while. $SPY, $BTC, $ETH

Jfielder_strat

If the $SPY Double Bottoms this could be the bounce.

Jfielder_strat

Is the Dollar fighting inflation for the fed by indirectly lowering energy costs ?

Jfielder_strat

A the end of 2018, growth slowed, and SPX/SPY got very bearish unable to hold the 21 weekly ema. Following the last rejection, it also dropped previous support for one final capitulation marked by a 30RSI. Today looks very similar.