REASONS TO SHORT:
1.THE BIG DAILY CHART V-PATTERN STARTED FROM LAST DEC. 224% OF XY WHICH IS 2193 HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED. PULLBACK IS EXPECTED.
2.RSI DIVERGENCE APPEARS
T1: 38.2% 2115
T2: 50% 2091
T3: 61.8% 2069
this is probably too late to trade the pair as it moved down quite a lot since last friday.
It is a typical case for the 88.6 retest model. expecting price to go further to 0.7572(38.2%) or 0.7410(61.8%).
So far, the Pattern seems good. The long tail candle formed on the friday indicated buying pressure below 1.3025. I am planning to long it when it comes back to 1.3000, SL is around 1.2965.
selling pressure may come around 1.3325 as it is fresh to retest. We may choose to close partial position and move sl to be and let the profit run.
The profit margin is good.
My previous projection failed as S&P did not go to 2188,but bounce back from Asian session highs of yesterday. As I mentioned, RSI is below 40 when retesting the area. so I did not enter the trade.
Reason to long S&P around 2158-2160:
2. previous range lows waiting to be retested(it's fresh)
Target=estimated 61.8% retracement of projected CD(...
Finally, after days of moving within the range btw 2058 and 2075, the price broke the range.
Don't rush to long the index, I recommend patiently waiting for pull back to area around 2075. I would change my trading timeframe to 15 minutes to look for entry confirmation. RSI should be btw 40 and 60 to place the order then.
1. BUYER MAY TAKE A REST AFTER RECENT RALLIES;
2. PRICE MAY DROP TO 2133 IF IT CAN NOT CREAT A HIGHER HIGH
3. PAY ATTENTION TO THE AREA 2154-2155.6, IF THE SECOND TRY FAILS, IT WILL SOON DROP THE BOTTOM OF THE RANGE 2146 WHICH I MARKED BEAR TRAP
4. PRICE MAY DROP FURTHER TO 2133-34 BY MEASURING THE HIGH AND LOW OF THE RANGE(2146-2158)
5. NORMALLY, PRICE WOULD...
1. AFTER RAPID REBOUND, SELLERS MAY COME BACK AGAIN TO TAKE OVER THE MARKET
2.78.6% OF XA IS AROUND 2100 WHICH IS PROBABLY A GOOD ENTRY TO SHORT
3. POTENTIAL PROFIT MARGIN IS GOOD
ENTRY IS DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL PATTERN, PERSONALLY, PREFER TO 1-2 BIG CANDLES INSTEAD OF SEVERAL SMALLER ONES.
PRICE IS LIKELY TO BREAK THE WEDGE AT 7TH TOUCH, AND WE CAN TAKE THE TRADE TO SHORT IT WHEN IT COMES BACK TO RETEST THE BOTTOM OF THE WEDGE.
IF PRICE CHOOSES TO GO UP, WAITING FOR PULL BACK TO LONG IT WHEN RETESTING THE UPPER WEDGE.
1. PERFECT MATCHED THE PATTERN, PRICE REACHED 161.8 XY, i AM LOOKING TO SHORT AT T2
2. V-PATTERN IS VERY LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY REVERSAL PATTERN.
3. POTENTIAL EXIT AREA IS MY "BULL TRAP AREA" AROUND 45.97-45.82
4. EXPECTING PRICE TO MOVE UP AGAIN AFTER TOUCHING THE AREA
1. THE SO CALLED FIRST ROUND IS OVER.
2. MORE SELLER MAY JOIN THE MARKET TODAY
3. WAITING FOR THE 38.2% OR 61.8% PULLBACK TO SELL.
4. NICE STRUCTURE FOUND IN THE 5-MIN(38.2% OF AB) AND 15-MIN(61.8% OF AB)
5. CONFIRMATION ENTRY(CANDLE PATTERNS OR PIN BAR TO CONFIRM ENTRY)