About meBig fan of John P. Hussman. My interest on currency crises led me to Bitcoin, some of whose fellow admirers led me to the Financial Independence movement and to Hussman's insight into market cycles.
Bitcoin has truly wrinkled my brain, bro!
Since I didn't know how to chart credit spreads, I thought that the difference in the prices of HYG (Junk Bond ETF) and TLT (Long Term Treasuries ETF) could be useful. I found that this "indicator" is at a long-term support first stablished on early 2009 (which formed a bullish divergence that started this bull market).
I don't trade bonds, so I would appreciate...
There are several similarities in the recent dip and the subsequent recovery to the one in Q3, 2007. Top to bottom are presented:
1.- The S&P500, which has achieved a marginal new high after the dip.
2.- The VIX going above 30 for the first time in years, and never going back to the previous complacent levels even on a new all-time high.
3.- Notice how the last...
My hypothesis is that the top of the bull market is in. Industrials and small cap have been laggin for months, so the support at which the S&P500 ended the week will be broken within the next few weeks.
However, the line, that comes from the 2009 low and has held several times, last of them last April, will not fall at the first attempt. In addition, the daily is...