“There are specific identifiers that are entirely recognizable during the bubble’s inflation. One hallmark of mania is the rapid rise in the incidence and complexity of fraud….”
― Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
The road to inflation is a choppy one. The benchmark is up over 60% since the march lows. The fed continues to assure us that...
As we approach the end to the first week of 2021's trade we are taking note of the developing long-term trends within the commodity cycle. History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme - As times change so do commodities. In today's world, water, solar power, cannabis, and cryptocurrency are the hot items.Ultimately the democratic sweep will provide an...
The pattern we developed post the recent bounce on DXY in late Dec' 2020 has shown probable significance that a low is near. This would allow larger players to reduce cash exposure and begin hopping on the recently confirmed reflationary trend.
Red marks the spot
Copper has shown to be one of the most out performing bullish trends of the 2020 year. We consider the need to materials in EV and chip manufacturing. These trends are likely to continue and keeping an eye on this trend will be key for the reflationary trade that has exposed itself as historically probable
The story of MT Fuji was of the Japanese stock market boom of the late 1980's into the early 90's. Now we're seeing levels retrace through the technical elements along with fundamentals looking historically similar. Technicals in sight here for the incoming Thurs Tokyo lock down could give way to an optimal long term entry.
Short term outlook: Bearish
As we approach day of the new year I'd like to take note on the significance of watching all global 10y benchmarks. The way these develop in a composite will give a cleaner trend based picture as to where central banks are "movving"
Near term out look: Neutral ( IE nothing that marginal pull backs in the periphery give way to better entry on financial equity...
Spuz has continued its holiday rally into the YOPR(Yearly opening range) As equities rally into the new year we are acknowledging the 60% rally off the March lows as significant with the variable of the incoming inauguration of President elect Biden. 3789.25 is the projected inflection that has exposed a move as far as 3900.
Areas of interest
As the discussions around interest rates continue into the new year we are monitoring the ultra bonds closely. Technical significance developed over the holiday doldrums as anomalous orders printed heavy offers through the 213 handle. Nearly 1,000 contracts printed on the this singular level alone. This gives way to a potential incoming move that defines a new...
Gold has recently shown a strong technical reversal off meaningful inflections. Most notably the upward sloping internal trend line from 2018- 2019 yearly break out. We are monitoring a potential retest of the inflection point developed in early NOV between 1956-1980. The gap of excess on the profiles has been evenly filled over the 2020 yearly close. Thus...
Given the recent buoyancy in risk correlated assets and the ossified relative trend in oil, we are going to keep a close eye on the developments coming out of the OPEC meeting scheduled today. The impact or lack thereof gives way to intra-day reactionary technical triggers.
Areas of importance/Interest:
On OCT 28th CEO's of FANG are set to testify after a series of hawkish rhetoric came out of the anti-trust panel at the monthly opening range. We are seeing this current declining issue develop potentetial triggers to near term upward sloping support at 10970. It going to take a serious liquidation in context to chew through the fatbottom node at 11193 inflection.
FESX EUROSTOXX FUTS
Euro Stoxx like the DAX continue to show the same sideways indecision irrespective of the US EQUITY market. We continue to wait for BREXIT EU discussion for potential catalyst to give these markets direction
Technicals on the weekly point to a GAP RISK point of interest at 3118
This would give only trigger with a breakdown through...
We see near term corrective waves with a break and weekly close below 12805. This opens a move down to test the post April '20 rally into the may excess between 12100-11508.
A break and close back through the upward multi year AUG '19 sloping trend exposes a test of ATH’s with a marginal higher move for bullish establishment.
Take a look at my DE10Y yield analysis for better context.
On the technical front we are looking at completed gap risk from the most recent excess distribution from August.
If we hold continuation through the 176.91 handle then we are exposing a retest of 177 figure. Failure to retain inflection at 175.17 exposed a higher yield across both sides of the Atlantic...
As yields continue to push lower across both sides of the Atlantic technical trigger points project a break out of range. Fundamental interpretation from ECB's Lagarde's recent commentary in a interview on OCT 15 gives room for the implication that could see "cheaper yields, and richer bonds in the interim".
Lagarde stated the following "Rebound is uneven across...
My recent published overview on FX pairs against USD does not mention the story behind AUDJPY cross. The story here seems to show investors are little interested in holding safety given centralized policies thus giving AUDJPY a similar pattern to overall risk assets, equities seem to mirror the trend most clearly.
AUDJPY LEVELS :
Resistance 77.74 -...