Maximilianned

Maximilianned Updated 

Woke up this morning to see that the Yen had sold off to multi year lows. While the I've read there is a 'risk off' mentality - then that should make the Yen a safe haven. So what else? Well the US Dollar is strong - right now its very divergent. We may have seen the high of the week for the DXY. This has had an impact on the Yen vs the US Dollar. This is...

Maximilianned

Everything covered going into NFP. If there is obvious trend after 10:30 am EST - maybe I'll join. The only trade on is the USD YEN (6J) which due for a move its been very quiet. Like it up at the POC with the target - which is .38 Retrace as well - all about the confluence. Three POCs above it and one below. 4 Hour Chart

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So it was strange as the SPX was selling off Thursday they ramped the metals. Dollar was stronger yet Gold was up - and big, gaining $40 in about 3 hours. That was a hell of ramp. Flight to safety? Eye Roll, today it put a double top with lots of divergence that's more obvious on shorter time frame. However this channel isn't obvious - as you can see we are...

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Sweep means move in Gold, Euro and other USD pairs. You don't see these candles every day, before Asian open and after NY Close. Short CAD to Wednesday's POC. .78135

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This is a personal story. I got stopped out - badly on the sell off that started Sunday night on the ES and the NQ - lots did. Ok - Well we know what happened with Evergrande story. So my thought was buy lower and get 'em back and then some. As some of you will know China was on a National Holiday till Wednesday night and no one knew exactly what would...

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You can see the Fib that was the turning point and the regression line that took us down from 4460 Hopefully we can break through it. Would rather close below the VPOC - so we don't have to come back - but again breaking through resistance is more important. (which was done at the close) Just behind the VPOC we can take that out tonight and hopefully keep...

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Through the summer the ES created a higher trendline, call it summer excess - which is now gone. The trendline we are currently in goes back to March and has been tested three times. We'll find out soon if it can hold for a fourth time. If its makes a turn its here - otherwise we may be in regime change. One hour Renko chart.

Maximilianned Updated 

We have been stuck in regression channel for a week. Chart attached at the bottom. It was broken this afternoon - I was able to short against it at 6 AM EST - and got stopped out this afternoon. So here's what we know - 4450 the highlighted level is the 50% retracement and is the line in the sand. The interesting thing is the Point of Control is at 4444.50...

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Unlikely that Gold will actually go up in a meaningful way - the banks won't let it, at least for now. 12 HOUR chart and momentum is positive. If the SPX rallies off the lows (started today maybe?) Mostly likely the DXY goes down and the Gold goes up. This multi month pattern has been accurate. All part of the same plan that I charted back in May - and...

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Well it decent of SPX to go let shorts out that got Gapped back on the 23rd of August. The support is tact - and maybe the SPX will dump with some news bomb, but this chart isn't saying that at all. Waiting for Options Expiry to get long you might find the SPX is 75 points higher. Its saying buy the dip, right or wrong this chart looks bullish.

Maximilianned Updated 

So firstly Thursday and Fridays price action. We back tested to a Point of Control which I actually nailed 4530 (even a broken clock is right twice a day). See attached chart to view my blind luck. Then down to 4484 high volume node which held, up to backtest the .236 Fib (4502) then back to 4484 which failed but held at the .38 Fib (4472) then back 4484...

Maximilianned Updated 

Yes I wrote WEAK Though the week of August 30th - Sept 3. We made all time highs during he European session a few times this week - only to sell off during the NY session. Today during the RTH session we did make all time high today - but it felt like a stop run as we dropped immediately to 4519. Shown on the top is oscillator which uses volume - its pretty...

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While the target is way off from current price IF we can have a $1124 dollar down move on a daily candle this week then maybe it isn't that crazy. If this plays out I would guess they would stop at .78 Fib let everyone load up - and then pull it down to the POC of the market profile & trendline. Trend is still upward - but this is the Vol of Crypto. If you...

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You can see the larger downtrend line. This makes a decent short entry. They have ramped Crude on quieter Friday. I would not be surprised if they ramp it on Sunday night or Monday on the RTH open and then drop it on all longs. Of course any news reports or EIA reports could obviously negate all of this. Momentum at the bottom looks quite bearish as well the...

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Frankly this is the move I had hoped for last week - but Market wanted make sure every last long was in! Right now the upside may be the downside. As I remarked in a earlier chart - that was unlikely since we were in summertime volume. These are the levels they may be important in the next couple of days.

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Normally the divergence is negative. Not this week - the RSI is showing there is interest. Two things to point out. 1) Overnight support at 4485 quickly rejected lower prices. 2) The moment of truth will be the open - we are stuck in some algo driven regression channel . We need to break this to move upward - wait and see which this gets resolved. Lots...

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BTC has been gassed for two weeks. The oscillator is a CMO The announcement that President Nayib Burkele of El Salvador bought 200 BTC seems like a good reason to sell off. Truthfully - I can't imagine that anyone would announce that and expect different outcome - I would guess (and hope) he was in on the joke. Maybe he bought it - Today! Or shorted it, or...

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This is a pretty obvious chart of whats going on with CAD - you can see its sitting at 50% retracement with trendline resistance overhead. This is now cyclical matter - DXY continues to make higher highs - and inversely CAD, Cable, and AUD are lower highs. This also means lower oil and Gold of course. Based this chart this is a good point to short anyone of...