$USDJPY at a critical juncture medium term. Wkly 100 sma @ 114.75 plus fib resistance @ 114. Downtrend line support @ 108 then 106.65 Fib support. This could affect gold, miners and equities near term as carry trades get unwound.
If earnings are positive look for AAPL to gap above $115 and hold. If Apple misses earnings then the $101-104 area will be crucial to watch. Extended trading below the median fork (thick black line) would be especially bearish.
Monthly chart for the US Dollar index ETF is currently about to have a major crossover of the 10/20/50 MONTH moving averages. Currently they are basically on top of each other at the $22 level.
Price is riding the upper monthly Bollinger Band and the bands are flaring away from each other which shows the strength in the move and tells of expanding volatility....
Just an interesting study using arcs and Fib retracements. Using BRK for an overall proxy for our markets to gain insights as to if we may be nearing a generational top.
This chart suggests to me that we may be closer to some sort of top than we are to the beginning of a new secular bull market as some have suggested.
Today's close hit the second and higher measured move that I laid out for YCS. Two months ago I posted this chart:
Direct bulls-eye. The question is what comes next?
One possible scenario: I could see price bounce between 82.50 and 78.50 to digest gains and then try for higher levels after a period of consolidation....
Natural area for the EURUSD to consolidate and digest the recent major down move. H/S target achieved at 1.30158 and price bounced off major down trend line that has defined pivot areas of supply and demand since 2013 (dotted black line - see shaded circles for times that price has pivoted off of this line.
Would not be surprised to see a counter trend covering...
*After a period of consolidation at the 50 week MA of no less than three months, the USDJPY pair looks ready to continue it's longer term trend higher.
*This SMA (50 week sma) has been a decent bull / bear line since 2008. See red / Green ovals denoting interactions. When price was in a downtrend it acted as resistance (red ovals). Since late May 2012 it has...
Bonds appeared to break out of a flag consolidation pattern today in the TLT Bond ETF. If this fund can close over 115.50 there is upside range to 117.50 and then ~119 as next target. This seems to be coinciding with US Dollar chart firming up as well as the VIX index closing over the key 14 level.
This is a key chart to watch over the coming days and weeks.
Based on this pattern triggering on a move over ~21.60 you could expect a measured move to ~22 before hitting resistance. The timing of this breakout seems to be coinciding with market topping action which further strengthens the likelihood of this chart having predictive utility.
This chart taken together with today's breakout in Treasuries (TLT) and over 30%...
* Price hit the extension of the neckline from last year's large
head and shoulders pattern and reversed almost to the penny.
* Price is still in a broad range area that may prove to be choppy.
Trade the range until a trend is determined.
* Until price can break above the neckline extension trend line or
break down back below the red descending trendline...
Price is currently in a tenuous location, leaning hard on 250sma support (purple line) but finding resistance from the 25% tine of the pitchfork. Potential H/S or inverse cup w/handle forming.
Above EURUSD 1.37 gives range for a test of the midfork and would negate somewhat any bearish connotation to this chart.
Below 1.35 on a daily close could bring sharp...
I had to redo my chart after the stock split so it gave me a chance to take another look and redraw. Here's an updated chart that may or may not prove valid. Price does seem to react at the various tines of the fork.
Daily closes above the mid fork would bode well for AAPL. Price rejection by the mid fork and closes below 90 would have bearish overtones for AAPL...
Here is just one look at BTCUSD. Let's see if these trend lines continue to be respected. Pay attention to price and how it interacts with pitchfork support. Over 680 would be bullish. Below 535 spells trouble for long trades.