MujkanovicFX

MujkanovicFX Updated 

TECHNICALS: The CHFJPY pair faced some resistance at the upper line of a bearish wedge which also aligns with the 61.8% Fib and a horizontal resistance level. However, the 1-hour chart shows some short-term support levels which have to break first to confirm further weakness. We'll look for a break below 111.50. POSITIONING: Strong bullish flows in both CHF and...

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Gold is trading in a daily bullish channel and managed to break above a short-term falling trendline. 1,700 remains a key support, and 1,725 a key short-term support. The 1-hour candle shows that sellers are rejecting lower price at the moment which could the price higher. The recent peak on the 1-hour chart also broke the previous bearish structure, signaling...

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TECHNICALS: Daily: Strong resistance formed at 108.00 round-number, aligning with the 38.2% Fib level. 1-Hour: Strong selling pressure overnight after a gap to the downside. 107.85 (daily high) remains a short-term resistance. FLOWS: JPY bullish, USD bearish RISK SENTIMENT: Mixed NEWS THEMES: US protests and Japanese new monetary stimulus could support a...

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TECHNICALS: Daily: Resistance at 1.2450 - 1.2500 that would take a strong sell-off (unlikely) in USD to break. Current levels align with the 61.8% Fib level as well. 1-hour: Bearish RSI divergence and selling pressure emerging this morning. FLOWS: Very bearish on GBP NEWS THEMES: Negative Brexit headlines could push the pound lower. CORRELATIONS: Yield...

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TECHNICALS: Daily: Strong resistance at 1.1150 keeps holding, our trade acts as expected so far (pullback to 1.10 before reversal). We're holding the trade. 1-Hour: Short-term double top with bearish divergence, points to the downside. FLOWS : EUR bullish and USD bearish. Possible headwind for the trade. RISK SENTIMENT : Positive to mixed after Trump's...

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Hi traders, as promised, here comes part 2 of my EUR/USD update. Correlations: Yield differentials formed a slight divergence and points lower, at least in the short-term. Gold keeps falling (positioning is quite bearish as well), suggesting further weakness in EUR/USD as well.

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Hi traders, As analyzed in our previous post, the EUR/USD is facing resistance at the 1.1150 level, where the pair closed with a nicely-looking bearish pinbar pattern. In the previous post, I provided a detailed explanation of why the pair rallied to that level and why a reversal was very likely (we placed a sell limit order earlier that week). Here's a quick...

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Hi traders, the EUR/USD pair managed to break above 1.10, reaching the highest level since early April. The euro benefited from EC's joint recovery fund (although there are still a lot of questions open), and the US dollar weakened on persistent risk-on flows. What's next for the pair? Here's our view. Let me know what you're thinking of the pair in the...

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Hi traders, the USDJPY pair could provide a selling opportunity after the pair retraced near the 108 round-number resistance, which aligns with a strong horizontal resistance and the 38.2% Fib. The 1-hour chart shows a double top pattern, signaling some more weakness in the pair. Since we don't take trades based on technical levels, here're some other...

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The USDCAD pair broke below a well-defined triangle pattern on broad USD weakness this morning, trading below the key 1.3850 support. What do you think of the pair? Let me know in the comments below. Technicals : A strong bearish candle is forming on the daily chart. The pair loves to revert to its mean, so we can expect a pullback to the 1.3850 resistance in...

MujkanovicFX

The DAX managed to push above the key 11,200 level today, but it could have difficulties to keep up with the recent bull run. The 200-day MA, 61.8% Fib and a rising trendline resistance all await near 11,700. Although some major market reports came in better than expected, such as PMIs, the eurozone is still far away from a recovery. I am sitting on my hands for this one.

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Correlations: The Nikkei index keeps recovering from the sharp losses and continued to form fresh higher highs and higher lows. The USD/JPY pair shows some divergence with the index, but the 108.00 level is a key hurdle to the upside.

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We don't take any position until our trading strategy confirms our entry! The USD/JPY pair is currently sending opposing signals. Technicals: Here we have the USD/JPY pair that is approaching an short-term key resistance on the daily chart, at the 108.00 round-number. The pair has been in a downtrend and formed consecutive lower lows, which makes it important...

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Hi traders. After a very profitable short trade in GBP/USD, it's time to reassess our view on this pair. Technicals - Bearish : The pair broke below a massive head and shoulders pattern and completed a pullback to the neckline, where pound-bears pushed the price lower again. The 1-hour chart shows a falling trendline resistance right at the 1.22 round-number,...

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Part 2/2: Correlations and Interest Rates: The US is on holiday today which is why the chart doesn't show an update for German / US interest rates, but the price of gold has been recently falling and shows a slight divergence with the EUR/USD spot price. A small bearish sign for the pair.

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Part 1/2 Flows : As of May 22, bearish for EUR (2/10), bullish for USD (8/10) Economic Surprise Index : Neutral (slightly more bullish for USD) Technicals : The pair retraced at the 1.10 resistance near the 200-day MA, with the 1-hour chart showing a pullback to a short-term resistance level. Resistance levels: 1.0920, 1.1000 Support levels: 1.0800,...

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Part 2/2: Technicals : So far we have a clean break below the bearish wedge pattern on the daily chart, although buyers are becoming more active recently and push the price higher. The 1-hour chart shows the key sell zone that should be monitored - it's the pullback level to the lower wedge resistance that aligns with a short-term horizontal resistance. ...

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Part 1/2: Hi traders, the New Zealand stock market has been performing quite well compared to the Australian ASX 200, pointing at a lower AUD/NZD for some time. Interest rates are still neutral. Technical picture and other important analysis points follow in the next post.