Here I have 3 conditions for further development:
1. Until we see a close above 31777 on a monthly basis, there is a strong possibility that BTC will remain in the downtrend.
2. If condition #1 is confirmed, the next target is 16530 and from this level the blue or red option applies
3. If 16530 fails, I see three lower price levels as potential targets:
EURCAD has already done everything to turn around, but another high tomorrow is not out of the question.
Therefore I set the sell zone between 1.49910 & 1.50532.
--- Confirmation for falling prices:
1. Daily close below 1.49531
2. Weekly close below 1.48756
--- The red path applies as long as EURCAD does not close below 1.48756, on a weekly basis. Then there is a...
As can be seen from the chart, CHFJP has been forming a giant bearish butterfly since Dec 16, 2022, so I assume the first minor abc correction has started since yesterday.
In addition, the 5-wave bullish movement (probably) ended yesterday.
This plotted falling movement should reach at least 0.618% Fibbonacci or the Ichimoku baseline.
Both values match and are...
In the Weekly we see a thick blue line, the Ichimoku Baseline, which serves as a target and support.
So there are 2 possibilities:
a) Next week dips a bit lower and then price turns to hit 1.0928 in June (red dashed path)
b) It falls through the base line, reaches the values in the gray box and turns up at 1.05764/1.05419 (blue path).
Either way we should see...
In the Weekly we see a green future cloud suggesting that the price could/may be bullish again after some correction.
Unless there is a weekly close above 1.2629, it would be possible to move lower after hitting 1.2325, targeting 1.22197 and eventually 1.20857-1.20189.
Ichimoku Base Line serves as a support.
If you find this setup useful, give it a like or a...
In this variation, I plot the blue ABC correction of the entire falling stretch since January 2021 (1.23491) to September 2022 (0.95356), which is expected to rise above 0.618% = 1.12743 and reach 1.13835.
As in Variant 1, the target should be reached by July (August at the latest).
The red b can correct the red a either 0.38, 0.50 or 0.618%. That remains to be...
Note 33422, if H4 breaks this mark and stays below it, then it goes straight down, if not then it might go back up as indicated with the blue dashed path.
In both cases, both targets marked with the yellow circles should be achieved
1TP = 33188
2TP = 33113
And maybe 32981.
As long as USDJPY stays above 134 I expect a small a b c correction to drop sharply thereafter to allow the blue (B) to form.
Hold 128,638, then it would be blue (C)'s turn, which should get either 1.382% or 1.618% FIB from blue (A).
But if 128.63 is broken by the daily close, then it is clear that this pair can decline towards 121.65 - 114.74.
In this variant I show the blue ABC correction of the entire falling distance from January 2021 (1.23491) to September 2022 (0.95356), which should reach 0.618% = 1.12743.
The goal should therefore be reached in July (August at the latest).
See next Tuesday if the red (A) is complete to get in for the rising red (B).
The lower targets still to be achieved are as follows:
1.05214 and 1.04947 where the reversal could already occur.
As a precaution, I have drawn the red (A) to 1.04626, but this mark does not have to be reached.
If, contrary to expectations, the price rises above 1.10328 in the second...
I think a slightly stronger correction is due for the DAX.
If this trading idea works, then this is a very attractive RR.
By the end of this week it might still reach 15933.9 up to a maximum of 16006.2, so:
TP is variable and indicated on the chart.
With EURJPY it is not yet clear whether the wave (3) or the B ended yesterday.
Therefore, we have to wait and see if in the coming weeks 42.855 will be broken and exited down (= wave C), or the price will stay above this level and confirm that wave (4) was the issue.
In the latter case, we would have to expect another high with wave (5).