Here is a very bearish scenario.
I only have one condition to make it work:
In the next 6 weeks (i.e. until Christmas) there should not be a close above $1810 on a weekly basis, otherwise the pink i would be the 4 and the bullish wave 5 would rise above the last ATH.
In this setup I anticipate a nice symmetry between the left and right sides, which should be completed by the end of June 23.
--- No daily close above 34150 until the end of November
--- No daily close below 28782 until the end of Jan '23.
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The German index will soon face a major resistance zone between 13697.30 and 13936.5.
Until then, he should initially reach and surpass 13584.4 & 13623.
The main target is @13774, which is 200% of the AB's Fib expansion /red circle/.
If there is no daily close above 13940 then we should see a bearish move below 13251 in November.
In this case the main downside...
And here is another clearly bearish variant = red waves 1-5.
It doesn't have to be true, but I'm not ruling it out entirely.
As a precaution, it is good to think about such a possibility in advance.
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In this TA I would like to draw your attention to the MACD Monthly.
It can be seen that a strong short signal was generated on January 22 and it will be months before the signal turns bullish again.
For this reason I expect that in September we will reach 10776.59 -10666.39 where I then placed 2 paths, the blue one and the red one.
Both options are valid.
I see 2 variants for further development.
Here variant 1: weekly
As long as the price stays below 3783.4 there are chances of more lows until the end of October with Target @3287.1.
Strong support is @3233.2.
In this concept it means that we still need to see the black wave 5 to complete the red (C) or 1.
If I am correct October will close below the blue dashed...
Whether the Dow Jones will continue higher or not will be decided by the 31213.50 price level and that means as long as there is no weekly close below there is a chance that the blue path will lead the way.
The red dashed path comes into play once 31213.50 is broken and left down.
All indices will have a similar course.
USDJPY will soon face resistance. The problem zone is between 14821 and 148.8.
I'm expecting a bearish reaction here on Monday or Tuesday.
But if (contrary to expectations) the mark @148.8 is sustainably overcome, then it goes to 150.50-151.
If the price bounces back at the resistance zone, all indices would rise.
First target: 145,843
Confirmation for longer...