As 2Q 2018 comes to an end, there is a lot of hesitation and uncertainty in the markets. Since the end of January we have seen incredible market volatility - some days look like a strong bull market, others trade like a bear market. Although SPX closed the week above its 20 MA, the stoch RSI is already signaling overbought and the MACD is on the verge of crossing...
BTCUSD has failed at the 200 DMA three times already since it was lost. However, the 200 DMA is still rising due to the 47 day run from $6,000 to $20,000 still being included in the MA calculation. A rising 200 DMA is much more difficult to breach than a down-sloping one, leading me to believe that the upcoming inflection point in the 200 DMA will shortly precede...
Bitcoin in 2018:
11 moves > 20% (at least 11)
8 moves > 30%
4 moves > 40%
3 moves > 50%
1 move > 100%
Avg. Duration of moves: 10.27 days (~246.5 hours)
High: $17,422 on 1/6
Low: $5,855 on 2/6
- Averaging more than 2 moves of at least 20% per month so far.
If I had to guess - I would say it will drop ~20% one more time before it makes a run...
Currently holding on the 100 MA on the 240 min. chart, possible right ear sidewinder setting up. Stoch RSI turning up off the bottom, MACD getting ready to cross and SQZMOM trending up. Given confirmation of those indicators, if the sidewinder plays out we will see 25K+ BTC by Dec 31. Shorts beware.