It seems quite probable that $BTC is building a new growth channel as it approaches the third halving event next year. The R/S scaffolding seems to have been put in place since the lows of a few months ago. We tried to break back into the previous channel, and got rejected. This isn't a case of gloom, but actually rather healthy. Everyone is focused on scarcity of...
So, instead of 50, 100, 200, try 34, 89, 144 as your SMA targets. There's a lot of insight for the long-term investor here. See if you can spot them in this chart.
The point of this chart idea is to assess whether the bull-cycle parabolas resume from a tangent taken off the long-term trend. The volume profile seems to be the story here, and the second week of November is the test for whether this story holds water. Let's see.
This is just a study.
I am imagining the bear market recovery as a series of adjustments with flatter linear trend lines.
The path through the bear market is therefore the convex hull of these periodic adjustments.
The introduction of institutional investing through the futures market has created a new paradigm for the growth path in bitcoin's prices. The channel in green shows the likely long-term trajectory. Now that there is a little more volume in trading, perhaps there is a little more confidence that we revert to this channel.
Is there a longer-term parabolic trend in bitcoin? If so, we ought to be able to see some evidence for a series of tangents that can inform the construction of an concave-upwards parabola.
This chart uses the regression lines to construct those tangents, and incorporates the recent price correction by way of a tangent line that serves to flatten the implied parabola.
