UPDATE: FOMC SCRAMBLED THE MARKET. H4 NZDUSD REJECTED TWICE FROM 50% FIB. BEAR ENGULFING H4 FORMED AT 50% FIB. NOTE: REASONS NOT TO TRADE THIS SHORT. 20 SMA IS POINTING UPWARDS AND PRICE IS TRADING ABOVE 20SMA AND 50SMA. RISK REWARD IS NOT FAVOURABLE. HUGE HUGE BULL PIN BAR D1. JUST AN OUTLOOK THAT REQUIRES FURTHER PRICE ACTION TO CONFIRM THIS TRADE FOR ME.
USDJPY AT SWING HIGH AFTER NUMEROUS ATTEMPT TO CLOSE ABOVE IT BUT FAILED, CREATING MANY PIN BARS (D1) AND A TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION PATTERN (H4) AT THE SWING HIGH 121.5. NOTE: H4 50 SMA APPROACHING AT 121. PRICE DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER IT IS REJECTED OR CLOSED BELOW THE H4 50SMA. DO NOT ENTER BUY IF PRICE MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 121.5 ON THE H4 OR EVEN...
USDCAD TRIANGLE PATTERN. ANALYSIS: H4 PRICE HAS MET RESISTANCE FROM 200 50 20 SMA AND BEING SQUEEZED BY THE DESCENDING TRIANGLE NOTE: 20 AND 50 SMA ARE TRADING SIDEWAYS, THIS IS A CONSOLIDATION MARKET THUS BREAKOUT COULD HAPPEN EITHER SIDE. BUT A BREAKOUT IT WILL BE. WAIT FOR A SUSTAINED CLOSE D1 OUTSIDE OF THE TRIANGLE BEFORE TRADING UNLESS YOU ARE...
WITH ALL THE SELLING OF GBP NZD AND EUR. IT IS NO SURPRISE TO ME THAT AUD WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SELL OFF, CORRELATION WISE. (NZD CORRELATES WITH AUD, EUR WITH GBP.) LOOK HOW PRICE REACTS WHEN IT NEARS THE 200 50 20 SMA CONFLUENCE AREA. AND LOOK TO SELL ON BEARISH PRICE ACTION H4 LEVEL, PREFERABLY 0.785 NOTE : DOUBLE BOTTOM @ 0.765 PRICE REJECTED FROM 200SMA...
IF THERE IS A PATTERN YOU TRADE. THIS IS IT. AN INSIDE BAR FOLLOWED BY A PIN BAR, AKA FAKEY SIGNAL. PRICE PRETENDS TO BREAK OUT OF MOTHER BAR AND SWIFTLY CLOSE BACK INSIDE THE MOTHER BAR TO TRAP ALL BULLS. NOTE THE 30 PIPS PIN BAR IS FAKING 91.00 TOO. SELL WHEN PRICE MOVES BELOW THE MOTHER BAR. THAT'S WHERE ALL THE TRAPPED BULLS'S PUT THEIR STOP...
IDEAL RE ENTRY IS AT 183.5, PREVIOUS SWING POINT. ANALYSIS : PRICE FORMED A ROUNDING TOP H4, AND TRADING BELOW THE 20 AND 50 SMA. CURRENTLY FORMING THE SECOND SHOULDER. PRICE CLOSED BELOW AND REJECTED FROM 20 AND 50SMA H4 YESTERDAY. WAIT FOR PRICE TO NEAR THE 20 AND 50 SMA BEFORE ENTERING SELL. DOWNTREND BIAS IS CONFIRMED IN MY OPINION. (REFER TO MY PREVIOUS...
TRADE IS COUNTER TREND ON THE SHORT TERM CHART AND WITH TREND ON THE LONG TERM CHART. PRICE HAS BEEN REJECTED FROM SWING POINT TWICE ON THE H4 AND ONCE ON THE D1. H4 SHOWS DOUBLE TOP WITH A SECOND LOWER HIGH. NOTE: PRICE IS TRADING ABOVE 20SMA AND 50SMA, THUS PEOPLE WILL WANNA BUY THERE. ONLY SELL IF PRICE BREAKS THE H4 MOTHER BAR AS INDICATED BY ARROW WITH STOP...
SELL @ 134.6, TRENDLINE AND 61.8% ENTRY BEARISH BIAS CONFIRMED D1 AND H4 D1 CLOSED UNDERNEATH THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE PATTERN. RETEST OF THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE CREATED A H4 LOWER LOW.
FOLLOW UP TO MY PREVIOUS USDCAD TRIANGLE PATTERN. H4 PRICE REACHING 200SMA SUPPORT LINE. PAY CAREFUL ATTENTION TO PRICE ACTION IN THE BOX. I WILL WAIT FOR PRICE TO GO UNDER THE 200SMA AND THE BOX. ENTER SELL UPON FAVOURABLE RETEST OF THE BOX. I HAVE A BEARISH OUTLOOK AS W1 IS OVEREXTENDED. NOTE: KEEP A LOOKOUT FOR RSI DIVERGENCE ON THE H4 AND D1. BUYERS CAN OF...
D1 CLOSED WITH A PIN BAR AT 50SMA AND AT A ROUND NUMBER 90. SIMILAR TO NZDUSD IDEA. H4 BEARISH RSI DIVERGENCE. WAIT FOR A CONFIRM BREAK OF D1 PIN BAR BEFORE DECIDING TO SELL. MARKET IS OVERALL UP HOWEVER I FEEL OVEREXTENDED. ONLY DOWNSIDE OF THIS TRADE IDEA IS THE LOW RISK REWARD.
FALSE BREAKOUT/ FAKEOUT. PRICE MANAGED TO BREAK 185 YESTERDAY AND CLOSED AT 183.94. A 100PIPS FAKEOUT. INCIDENTALLY ALSO CREATING A D1 INSIDE BAR. H4 RSI DIVERGENCE. THIS IS COUNTERTREND AS SHORT TERM IS BULLISH HOWEVER I THINK OVEREXTENDED. LOOK FOR H4 TO BREAK SWING LOW BEFORE ENTERING SELL. NOTE: H4 50SMA AT 183.5 PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT, I SAY AGAIN : STRONG...
SELL AT FORMER SUPPORT TURNED RESISTANCE. CONFLUENCE : 50SMA D1 BEARISH PIN BAR D1 BEARISH ENGULFING BAR H4 NOTE: H4'S 20SMA AND 50SMA ARE SIGNALLING BUY @ 0.7525 CONFLICTING SIGNALS BETWEEN H4 AND D1. I RESPECT D1 MORE THAN H4 THUS I WOULD PREFER A SELL TRADE. TREAD CAREFULLY.
PRICE BROKE AND CLOSED ABOVE THE CHANNEL IN H4 TIMEFRAME. RETESTING AND FAILED TO CLOSE INSIDE THE CHANNEL AS FOR NOW. THIS THE TIME TO BUY? MORE CONSERVATIVE TRADER MAY WAIT FOR D1 CONFIRMATION INSTEAD.
The trade we all dream of entering, in retrospect that is. Take it or leave it guys. Analysis are all there. Take note especially the H4 RSI divergence. Wait for favourable H4 bearish pin bar engulfing bars. Support broken turned into resistance?
A very greedy outlook. 1) 61.8% retracement of down impulse. 2) 120 pips pin bar formed at 61.8% mark. 3) i would say this is an overextended market, but who knows? not recommended to take trades without at least a D1 confirmation (a close below the pin bar). consider that this is counter trend, thus riskier and greedy. just an outlook, keep an open mind.
Outlook for USDCAD, neither buy nor sell. play the triangle, carefully. bearish engulfing formed last night could potentially be strong enough to break the lower barrier of the triangle, which will invalidate the "short term reversal" inside bar formed last week 17 feb. looking forward to the invalidation of the inside bar before entering any sell trades on this...
COMPLETION OF ALL 8 WAVES. RESUME OF MAIN DOWNTREND? POINT C AT MAJOR CONFLUENCE REGION 1) 200 SMA H4 2) 50 SMA D1 3) D1 BREAKOUT OF INSIDE BAR BEARISH PIN BAR 4) H4 RSI DIVERGENCE WILL WAIT FOR PRICE TO CLOSE BELOW 0.745. SELL UPON FAVOURABLE RETEST OF 0.745. IF PRICE IS REJECTED FROM 0.745. TRADE IS INVALID.
89.00 make or break level. wait for confirmation to enter long/short. 1) 200 SMA H4 2) 50 SMA H4 3) 20 SMA H4 4) RSI DIVERGENCE H4 5) RECENTLY BROKE ABOVE 200SMA AND SUSTAINED WITH A BULLISH PIN BAR 6) 89.00 was a major key level.