There are not any great setups currently but nearby support levels are shown. It might be worth buying a bounce off off ~800 or ~770 as a swing trade if we get one over the next couple weeks.
A trendline drawn from the all-time low of -40.32 to the November 29, 2021 weekly low was tagged perfectly by the December 20, 2021 weekly low which occurred 3 weeks after the November low. This seemingly-unlikely tagging of a trendline which starts at a negative value suggests that the trendline may be respected if we approach it from the current $108 price...
Refinery margin explained: The refinery margin is the percentage of profit generated from the sale of refined crude products. A 3:2:1 refinery spread margin percentage is charted here. A 3:2:1 refinery spread approximates the profit generated from a barrel of oil by subtracting the cost of 3 barrels of crude oil from the revenue generated via the sale of 2...
The S&P is approaching a 50% retrace level and the 200-week simple moving average, a combination which has served as support in the past. There should be an intraday bounce here (3500), at minimum.
Bearish considerations: 1. All moving averages of importance have curled over and have negative slopes. 2. A clearly-defined uptrend has been broken and tested multiple times. 3. A .382 Fib retracement has been clearly defined. 4. There is a bear flag pattern (the green channel). 5. The 200-day has been retested and rejected from below in a major way Bullish...
A pattern which for now is being described as a bat pattern until someone comes up with something better has been observed previously and now what appears to be a larger version is forming. SPY has repeated the "W" pattern many times during the Covid bull market but the most recent instance of such a pattern failed to continue the rally. This perhaps signals the...
Last week’s unusual intraday price action on Cinco De Mayo when there was a big rally right at the market open followed by a ranging pattern with highs that formed a crescent sweep looks very similar to the price action on the daily chart for the year. There are many differences between the patterns but the similarities between the two very different timeframes...
The top chart which is the daily shows major trendline support confluence at 101.00 and a 15-day time cycle of peaks which suggests we’re currently near or at a peak. The bottom chart which is the hourly shows a compound rising wedge (a rising wedge within a rising wedge) and the breakout of the teal line which “requires” a kickback revisit before allowing any...
SPY is at horizontal support and is peeking below the 100-day sma. The previous two selloffs didn't make it much further than 1.5% below the 100-sma, as shown by the 1.5% envelope band below the sma. This suggests a buying opportunity may be upon us within the next 5 or so trading days, judging by previous price action. I wouldn't want to hold long over the...
There has been a 5.8 day (133 hour) cycle that began with the Russian invasion. Plotting the distance (“Dispersion” bottom left chart) between the 50hr sma (blue top left) and 200hr sma (red top left) reveals it. The turning of the peaks represents buy (green vertical lines) and sell (red vertical lines) signals. Whether or not the turning of the peaks signals...
DXY weekly has an ascending triangle and it had a positive correlation to stocks when it had a sharp bull rally in 2014. It's also approaching horizontal resistance. Should get interesting.
Last time the Fed started raising interest rates and people were freaking out saying the stock market was about to crash was 2015. Yours truly lost a decent chunk of change on SPY puts at that time, so I remember it clearly. As the chart shows, the market did not crash, it rallied. The main difference between now and then is there is inflation and a new set of...
Chart A: (this text magically disappears from the chart when publishing so I put it here) Strength (higher high) shown in December crude => Likelihood that oil is headed higher note: June contract has not put in a higher high at this point, but December is taken to be more important since it's further into the future and future price is what we're trying to...
Supports a bearish outlook. The speed fan shows uptrend failure after uptrend failure and retesting of the fan lines. It would appear that we are now retesting a fan line and the downside target is in the $50 range.
EIA (Energy Information Agency) historical data going back to 1990 shows that the past year has seen stocks (storage) depleting more rapidly than any other year. I have reasons to believe demand is rising and if anyone is curious I will elaborate further but these ideas that I've been posting don't get much attention. I'll just say that diminishing supply and...
Crude will probably retest and maybe exceed the 2021 high somewhat but a correction to cool things off seems necessary to bring us back to the green trendline which is sloped identically to previous ascents. The purple trendline which goes back to November 2020 is important and a retest of it seems likely. The red line which is a support/resistance line of...
The US consumes 18 million barrels of crude oil per day (source: Google ). This is a staggering volume which is difficult to visualize therefore I have calculated how many football fields long each side of a cube that could hold that much oil would need to be in order to help with visualization. The result is that the cube would need to measure 1.29 football...
With the exception of an apparent fakeout in July there is a trendline going back to the previous July which is well respected. A triangle formation can be said to have started around April and looks poised to have a possible mid to late-November breakout. If a breakout happens between the green vertical lines I'll consider that an ascending triangle breakout...