Gold is starting an uptrend after building a double bottom in December 2013 and breaking the downtrend at the beginning of this year.
Downside potential for IAU after completing a XABCD pattern: -12% in 100 days.
Of course the idea has to be short not neutral!
This is an estimation for the Grand Super Cycle of Elliot Waves for the Dow Jones Industrial (monthly timeframe) until 2040. Calculated on a index basis of 1915 the target would be near the 6% p.a. line. Looks realistic.
For completing the XABCD pattern OIL has to decline about -15% in the next 120 days.
Gold finished a ABCD Gartley pattern and there is a potential for breaking out long above the resistance at USD 1302. But a rebound at the downtrendline would lead to continued falling prices.