Hi folks! Although I am still of the strong belief that the entire financial bubble will pop eventually (still holding on to some of my VIX futures), I do not trust fundamentals one bit right now, so I have to duck down into the dirty world of relying on sentiment prediction alone. The best bet in that regard seems to be the DOT (paid for in U.S. Dollars) -...
Hi folks! After seing the mad reaction of the tapering today (obviously people believe inflation will outrun interest rates and then make no negative impact on the economy along the way!), I am going full T.A. (=MAD) and placing a long on DOT with my profits from my VIX trades. It is important to say that I strongly believe in a massive crash in financial...
Hi folks! See my linked posts for more information regarding the macro state - I am just mentioning the arguments in bulletts it here: - The Chinese property crisis in getting worse by the minute - although mainstream media does not care. - Margin Debt in U.S. accounts is almost 1 Trillion (apx. 4% of GDP !!!!) - Real income down over 2% so far in 2021 due to...
Hi folks! I know I am really starting to look like a "permabear" here, but I am still holding on to my shorts despite a couple of intense days (my short have an average entry of 57.1k). I am taking no actions right now except keeping my shorts, so I guess this is a neutral post. Now, trying to watch the more fundamental picture rather than only T.A. it is easy...
Hi folks! Please see my linked post for a much more thorough argumentation for my positions - both technical and (the much more important) fundamental ones. An update on the current since my last post: - SPY still snuggling on the resistance that is the broken trendline from march/april 2020. - The Fear and Greed index just turned "extremely bullish"...
Hi folks! See my Previous post for more information - in short, I believe it is really about time to start hedging long exposure to the broad U.S. Stock market. T.A. Arguments: - SPY tested both the massive broken trend line from march 2020 yesterday and got rejected. - This Coincided with a rejection off the upper 1D Bollinger Bands. - The insane long term RSI...
Hi folks! If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy) and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink. - Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020 - Massive divergence on volume since...
Hi folks! As you may have noticed, I was very bearish for a long time before the last dip - I closed my shorts at 43k due to the risk of the liquidation que on Binance (I had TP at 30k), so I was lucky since I was mistaken about the magnitude of the drop (although I made a nice profit!). The Bollinger Bands on the 1D is usually a pretty strong indicator - both...
Hi folks! First - as I like to update on my positions (because you should never trust anyone who do not put their money where their mouth is - and Tradingview should definitely have a "Proof of Position"-feature: I got liquidated on one of my shorts (46.3k, SL 52k, TP 30k) - equivalent to a 0.9% loss of my total free equity portfolio. I still hold the (49.5k, SL...
Hi folks! For what its Worth, I am still bearish - mostly because of the state of all financial markets, but also a clear bearish technical picture which we have seen since the end of july. I am still holding my shorts with TP 30k from 46.3k/49.5k with SL 52k/56k. For the record, I have also stacked up 40% of my portfolio with long VIX contracts for september...
Hi folks! Do I need to say more? VIX more than 20% below its average, massive DIV in addition to a crazy level of risk - I am loading up bigtime on days like this! DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of others as a given, and never take advise from someone without skin in the Game. I wish you all well!
Just see my linked posts - I won't repeat myself again (except for the broken trend line). Still SL 52/56k TP30k from 46300/49500 for me. DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of other as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the Game. I wish you all well!
Hi folks! This - in addition to almost everything in financial markets ATM - is very scary reading. S&P500 just flashed a third consecutive (i.e. uninterupted by an equivalent buy signal) Triple Divergence (RSI, MACD and Volume) since the covid-correction on the dialy. Usually, one such signal is a bad sign, but three consecutive ones is just madness. Time...
Hi folks! As those of you who have followed my predictions for a while now are aware of, I have a massive bearish bias these days - while my predictions in the last weeks have yet to become a reality, my stated short positions are still alive and well. This is first and foremost due to the extremely scary macroeconomic state (and thus fragility of the financial...
Hi folks! See my linked posts - not more to say. Still short from 46300, SL 52000, TP 30000 If you want to have even more certainty in the probability distribution, you can wait until we potentially get another triple DIV on 1h - or just use a not-so-tight SL as I have done. DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well! Never take the word of others as a given - and never...
Hi folks! See my latest posts for more perspective! I will not take much of your time here, as it is just an update on previous ideas in BTCUSD: We have had a massive bearish DIV on both RSI, MACD and Volume in almost all asset classes (BTC, major alts, stock indexes etc.) since the very end of july. Thus, my reasoning applies to those assets as well although...
Hi folks! See my previous posts - I just marked the concurrent divergences in RSI and MACD that leads to my long(blue)/short(red) signals. If someone think the market structure is bullish - please let med know! My position is the same as in the last post: . See my linked post regarding the VIX for an idea of a good R/R bet right now* DYOR. NFA. Never take...
Hi folks! As you may know, FINRA published the Margin Debt Statistics for July the other day. As you may also know, tops in prolonged and explosive runs in margin debt usually precede big corrections/crashes in the S&P500 by a couple of months The Margin Debt reading was down 4.3% from July after 15 consecutive months of increase (!) Here is my idea on how...