ThesisTrading

ThesisTrading

New Thesis Charted for March 19 1 day chart tracks overall thesis 30s chart to day-trade 4hr chart for context to both overall thesis and day-trading. Thesis: there is no reason for us to not hit the 441 to 447 by March 11th as daily support holds higher each day. Support for 03/03 sitting at $435. Retrospect on March thesis: following the thesis...

ThesisTrading

Mid-day update. Take a look at the main (top chart). did not break 441 swing traded down to 43x. broke 439 support line broke 438 support line broke 437 support line broke white 436 support line. We are now (so-far) swinging on the flat-white bottom (436) by mid-day. Points of interest: we are trending along the first green dotted line up...

ThesisTrading

Hi everyone, Have not had time for a full analysis, given the original thesis still holds and is being supported with each trading day. Short: 411-> 433 -> 438 -> 442 -> 447 -> ?? either 45x or back to the 42x with bounces up and down between each channel. Remember February did not top $457 because of Januarys' lower than usual drop. February had a lower...

ThesisTrading

Summary: We tracked a crash from Double Top ATH 479 in January to 42x. We then followed the second double top from February 9th at 458 down to 411 on February 24th. We accurately tracked highs and lows for each day, and most importantly accurately called an ATH for February on February 24t, and a bounce back on this day. It's possible to swing up within the...

ThesisTrading

Overnight SPY update new, aggressive down-trend line even more aggressive than 02/22/22 points to Feb 24, $411 bottom You can see each time we miss reaching resistance lines, we trend lower and miss the green bounce-back. Though for example, if tomorrow resists at $420 (yellow line), we will then continue to dip to March 2nd. Please remember that's...

ThesisTrading Updated 

Chart update based on pre-market. Possible breakout if we stay above 431 or 432.50 with a cap of either: - 436.50 (dotted orange line down). - 441.27 Otherwise, if we break the 431 support, it's back to the white dotted line of 42x.

ThesisTrading

Following the last thesis update, here is a more accurate trend heading into March. - Green dotted lines indicate things going up. - Red dotted lines indicate things going down. - Yellow dotted line is our current pattern. The floors are either: - white dotted line: $425 on Feb 23/24 - orange dotted line: $419 on Feb 25th - red solid line: $410 minimum floor...

ThesisTrading

Please see original thesis detailing the 19th cycles. So-far, performance has followed our original chart showing: a consistent drop to the 42x line from October and January. we are nearing February 23-Feb 28th bottom & bounce-back (YELLOW dotted lines) Important Notes: the white downward arrows show a macro trend down from January 12th they...

ThesisTrading

This is not a SUMMARY FOR THE DAY or a thesis retrospective. A quick analysis and update to the chart to show: trending dates for bottom based on past support breakthrough dates based on past breakthroughs of resistance possible highs are the March 11th breakthrough or the March 17th high Each shows crash 1 and crash two back to $42x. Crash 1 is most...

ThesisTrading

Based on the aggressiveness of our 1 day chart, indicators show: February 23/24 bottom before a bounce a range of bounces between February 24, March 4, and March 14 on the way back up hitting weekly highs each time along the way and forming a stronger resistance. Positions: Spy Feb23-March04 call/put straddle. Collecting Aapl calls along the way. These...

ThesisTrading Updated 

Okay, this is based off the previously posted "19th" thesis. red-arrow-down icon represents the 19th drop green-arrow-up icons represent follow-on ATH Issues Januarys' ATH is arguably Decembers' tail-end February peak has been $458 Risks: Long term trend (white triangle) indicates continued declines Either until March 1st to be optimistic ...

ThesisTrading Updated 

Spy drops on the 19th of each month Drops start 4-11, followed by a bump, and a major follow-up drop there are exceptions where there is no follow-up (2 in the past 9 months) these dates (11th of the month) still display a substantial drop. each drop is followed by an ATH. with the same 2 exceptions Need: Identify cause of 19th drops Identify exceptions