ThesisTrading

19th cycle on the spy

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
  • Spy drops on the 19th of each month
  • Drops start 4-11, followed by a bump, and a major follow-up drop
  • there are exceptions where there is no follow-up (2 in the past 9 months)
  • these dates (11th of the month) still display a substantial drop.
  • each drop is followed by an ATH. with the same 2 exceptions

Need:

Identify cause of 19th drops
Identify exceptions
Comment:
Note: prior to May 2021, this pattern is irregular and occurs 1-1.5 weeks earlier, albeit on the same cycle.
Comment:
Quick update, after the fake-out, we returned to 438 levels, while I anticipate and trust in the 19th thesis for a drop, the overall risk to wait for a bottom is not acceptable.

Notes:
- January Fell to the 42x range.
- So did October, Not November or December.

My thesis is now switched to collecting calls, while it bottoms out, and riding into 443c for March.
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