20 July 2022 - entry: $23,365 - stop: $22,590 (-3.3%) Buying dip as a trend-following setup after price rejected the sharp downside momentum. target 34k+ by August
Add to long / hold here at $17,800 with target 23-24 and flip to short.
increased fear post headlines at the last days $20k low level. Would add to long here at $20,200 up to 1x. Think it will take another 8 months to go down 20% more from here. Would sell into §23,000 next days
$23,300 a good level to be covering $30k shorts but not a good long set up at this point. Would be looking to long range breakouts to the downside under $21k now and under $20k in Aug / Sept. Would sell longs $24-25k now and sell long and short $26-28k in Sept / Oct targeting $17-18k
Elliot Wave analysis of all time bitcoin log returns with thoughtful forecast
Expecting a distribution phase around last ATH followed by a cool off period down to bellow $40K. We are likely to see many 10-30% swings up and down inside a range of 40-55K for the next 6 months
Neither drop to 20k nor bounce to 40k. Most OTM options will keep expiring worthless. New uptrend in 2023.
My current view of the market for the next 6 months. Holding a short from $30k, will take profit under 25k next 3 weeks or hold for a liquidation cascade down to 17-19k. Will only be net long from the bottom of the cascade around 18k in August.
first time ever that I had to calculate a negative compound annual growth rate in Bitcoin
Bitcoins first real stress test, aka. the Minsky moment. Expect a gradual decline at a -50% pa rate down to 8k by end of 2023 and subsequent range market akin to 2015 just stretched out over 4 years. New cycle from 2027 on at a 62% annual growth rate
now that plenty major players got liquidated market has cleared room to the upside with potential $45,000 max target, piercing the 62-78% log retracement range by end of year 2022. this is the most optimistic scenario I see at the moment for the next 6 years resembling a "soft-landing" post 13 years of monetary expansion
Expecting strong burst to $30k in July, followed by momentum to $45k this year. Weekly RSI has been compressing since the 2021 top and is soon to shift from the compression to expansion regime. Even though we are in a bear market, Bitcoin is way oversold creating risk/reward asymmetry to the upside of 10-20:1 depending on the size one is moving.
Expect a +40% short squeeze from here ($21,656) to $30k in the next 2 weeks. Trail a stop 10% below trend. Sell into spike above $30k
2022 and 2023 still under the high-water mark, breakout in 2024 towards $100k. Technically price is in an uptrend from here on already if this scenario holds.
Anybody else thinking Bitcoin to trade range-bound between 16-30k next 2 years?
Expecting a lot of counter-intuitive price action next 12 months. Not sure who will come out on top of this in terms of P&L ... market makers: are sitting out (nobody lending) long-only: will be down more from forced selling on next new lows trend-followers: will get whipsawed as there are no easy trends but volatility is high short-only: ...
3 years of bottoming process followed by 6 years of slow volatile recovery.
my near-term 2y outlook for bitcoin: 103% CAGR-trend with 52% up / 40% downside deviation around trend with 95% confidence.