Here is a repost of a chart I added as an update to my running BTCUSD chart. BTC has come into the completion zone of a bearish harmonic. I am very bullish on BTC but would not be surprised to see a pull back here. The green zones are the targets I use when trading bearish harmonics. The stop is placed just above the 1.13 fib extension. In this case given I am...
Making the 4th tap at this level which increases the odds of a break.. Long term consolidation = big move above if it breaks. Like it above the box. Fibs are targets as usual.
TNX broke below the 1.40 pivot that I have been watching. IMO this is significant and not getting enough attention. Especially significant in the wake of growing inflation fears. The bond market seems to be pricing in a slowing economy not a growing economy. Money is getting dumped back into treasuries for some reason. A bond market rally could pull a lot of...
Here is the weekend look for Nov 29-Dec3. After running making another ATH on Monday the NAS reversed sharply at the 1.618 fib extension identified last week. Price continued to fall the rest of the week finishing with a big down day on Friday. The move on Friday, due to covid news, was significant. Price broke the previous week's low on higher than average...
Here is the weekend look for the ES/SPY Nov 29-Dec3. After making another ATH on Monday the ES reversed sharply at the 1.618 fib extension identified last week in tandem with the other indexes. Price chopped on Tuesday and Wed then finished with a big down day on Friday. The move on Friday, due to covid news, was significant. Price broke the previous 3 week's...
TNX bounced off the lower trendline in this longer term consolidation pattern. Basically a break above or below the two pivots identified by the red arrows would be significant. I will set alerts at both points.
Here is the weekend look for Nov 22-26. Last week price move easily through the previoius week's high and closed right at the bottome of the upside target zone. The move was made on strength in AAPL, AMZN and MSFT as well as other large cap names. The breath of the market was interestingly weak. The divergence between small caps and large caps was extremely...
Here is the weekend look for Nov 22-26. Last week price eventually moved through the previous week's high and tapped the bottom of the upside target zone and pulled back a bit. The move was made on strength in AAPL, AMZN and MSFT as well as other large cap names. The breath of the market was interestingly weak. The divergence between small caps and large caps...
Gold made a move last week despite strength in the DXY (dollar index). Historically gold has been seen a hedge for inflation. It seems to be catching a bid for that reason now. If gold is to continue it's upward momentum it should hold near or above the green box. No position currently, but I will watch closely. GDX and GDXJ can be good instruments to play if gold...
Broke out to ATHs. Looking for continuation. Play can be made on a break of last week's high or on a pull back into the tan box. Targets are the fib extensions above. If price falls back below the tan box the play is dead.
Here is the Weekend Look going into Nov 15-19. Last week the NAS finally pulled back after 4 strong weeks of uptrend after the CPI number printed higher than expected inflation data. The 10 yield reversed and sent tech stocks down 3%. Price bounce nicely from the first support zone identified in last weekend's post(see Weekend Look Nov 8-12), but failed to...
This is the weekend look going into Nov 15-19. It more or less a cut and paste of my analysis of the NAS. The ES pulled back last week for the first time in 4 weeks and then rallied the last few days after bouncing perfectly off the support zone identified in last weekend's post. See ES Weekend Look (Nov8-12). Last week closed leaving the first inside week...
Liking the retest of the ATH high here. Still possible to chop around in the tan box, but the buying pressure seems to be holding up. Not interested if price falls back below box. Targets would be the fib extensions.
Liking the look of SI here. Post earning positive reactions at ATH. A hold above the box and breakout is what I'm looking for. Trade dead if price falls back below the box. Targets = ATH and then fib extensions.
HMMJ has broken out of this long term down trend. The sector could gain some momentum again if there is any favourable news about easing US laws regarding MJ. I would expect resistance coming into the 236 fib retracement. I will take the sector more seriously if price can consolidate below that level and then break higher. No positions yet.
Here is my weekend look a the ES/SPY going into Nov8-12. ES like the NAS continued the uptrend last week without pause. Price as has felt extended for weeks now and I had expected at least a pause after the FOMC meeting but the event became another catalyst for the market. It was a successful taper as they are calling it and the market had additional catalysts...
Here is my weekend look at the NQ/QQQ going into Nov 8-12. The relentless move higher continued last week upto and following the FOMC. Going into last week my bearish harmonic target had been hit (See Oct 25 post) and I chose to remain patient until the FOMC reaction. The market has had a pattern of running up into the meeting and then selling off after the...
The 1.618 inverse extension sucking TSLA up like a gigantic vacuum.