Before Canadian CPI comes out we can assess the current technical and fundamental standing of various counterparts. CPI data is important as it gives a larger indication of where Central Banks will sit on the next decisions they make about rates. CAD has lost value VS other currencies for a considerable amount of time as they have taken a dovish approach in a...
The UK major stock index (FTSE100) has seen sustained falls over a reasonable period of time. Currently there is no strong case for up moves, and similarly down moves. However, It is ranging to the downside on a slightly more 'unsure' outlook, as summarised by the technicals drawn. 1. Tech bias illustrates losing of value and a push to lows that ultimately may...
EUR/GBP has ranged for a significant period of time between 0.935 and 0.835, measured with an avg high/low. Historically for this period there has been no enormously outlying difference between the demand for either currency, hence this range. Going forward, we can use these areas and our knowledge of current sentiment to judge future entries. This must include...
I called this trade short a few months back at previous highs on TV and Twitter, as well as to my Academy. The reason why was because I had both a Technical 'Value' deal and also the long term sentiment case to support me. In this instance, we can see very ideal Technical long zones below. 1. Trend/Stoch/Ma's/Key Price Action (Demand). 2. Trading...
Tech / Fund aspects lie similar to what we have seen on AUDUSD. Price falling over a longer period with some rebound. A) Current price re-rising towards key price channel areas. Shorts to come at price action areas above on a tech basis. B) Sentiment driving price higher because RBNZ is showing more hawkish intent vs FED. Lots of ambiguity around FED direction...
GBPCAD has rallied consistently over time, alike other CAD pairs. This comes mostly as the BOC has been quicker to take a dovish view. Other economies still lag slightly but are following suite, in this case the GBP. 1. Tech bias suits re short entries. 2. Sentiment bias supports re-balancing of near term value within trend.
AUDUSD has retained a significant downwards trajectory over recent years/history. This has been due to ongoing USD strength and is reflected amongst various USD pairs. A) The Technical Bias Remains short on pushes beyond this point (Price Action Supply Areas). B) Sentiment Bias comes in that the RBA is holding up AUD Strength via less dovish speech VS...
USDCAD has ranged for a significant period of time, with USD strength being considerable as of late (pre the last week or so). BOC Macklem to speak later may change trajectory. Technical levels are labelled incase we see increased/reduced demand for USD VS CAD. Continuing Easing from BOC faster than FED will support long side bias and could create a move out of...
EURCAD has vastly fallen over the recent period as CAD Sentiment settles, Euro weakness shows through. The overall trending Market is reflective of the speed at which both CB's are taking a dovish monetary policy stance. 1. Tech bias comes with several key factors - Key Price Action levels, trending channel, low stoch Osc. 2. Sentiment case supports long term...
GBPJPY is another example of the extent to which the Japanese Yen has been extremely weakened. A weak currency is beneficial for an economy that exports a lot by nature, but it only goes so far. Once you have seen extreme de-valuation, it becomes necessary to create a change of direction. This is usually done by anything that will prop up the currency...
Managing volatility is crucial for achieving consistent returns and minimizing risk. Volatility targeting strategies aim to adjust portfolio allocation to maintain a constant level of volatility, regardless of market conditions. By systematically adjusting exposure based on volatility forecasts, you can create a more stable and predictable trading...
AUD VS NZD is a well correlated pair generally speaking over time, similarly to that of the EUR GBP in recent history. We are now seeing AUD rise up on continued hawkish rhetoric. 1. Tech area now being hit for short side price action entries. 2. Correlation bias supports a falling back to downside, despite sentiment tone (RBNZ not too far off)
Using the RSI within your trading needs to come with a few key pointers. It is not the case that you want to sell everything you can / buy everything just because you are at extremes. You need to look and use price on all timeframes as well as key sentiment data. Only then can it be used as a reliable trading gauge.
The Japanese Yen has now lost value for a significant period of time VS its major counterparts. This de-valuing is asserted directly to the de-vestment of the Japanese Yen, typically a safe haven currency. The stance of the BOJ is still one with very low rates. Because this isn't changing quickly and there is no current intervention speech, the Yen remains a...
CPI data expected to come in lower YOY and higher MOM. Pre release we can look at key factors; 1. Short levels that exist now (current entry this AM) and shorts that exist at upper boundary resistance. 2. Longs that exist should we see a sharp fall. 3. Recent sentiment supporting a short side bias case for GBPUSD on a stronger USD. Levels mentioned are ideal...
Lowering rates by the SNB has caused CHF weakness this AM. This has been crushed by a lack of volatility in markets. 1. On a tech basis this constitutes light short entries. 2. Sentiment bias longer term is pulling CHF up VS US. Near term US strength momentum persists support light short bias. Any further shorts planned much higher.
GBPNZD's near term rally is now shining into the light of a weaker sentiment case. Antipodean data particularly reflects this as of late. 1. Re-push is showing weakness on lower TF's, early rejection. Short bias taken. 2. Sentiment case suits short GBP VS NZD.
Forex pairs correlate with each other if they are closely linked. They also correlate with economic climates and commodities. Understanding this allows you to reduce exposure in one direction in your portfolio and diversify for safety. Here's how.