Short it Yet Again near the calculated upper bound of a range using daily price volume and volatility. It's also making a nice reversal pattern on a lower time frame and nothing has changed on the global macro front, in fact its worsened for Europe.
10 yr off, the economy slowing, real rates will decline, and gold should follow its inverse correlation. At the current levels a nice chart pattern forming, and we are at the lower bound of a daily range calculated with price volume and volatility. Low risk with SL below recent low if you are worried.
Broadly commodities are backing off their highs, Oil and Grains were the lone hold out's. Corn is near the top of a volatility adjusted daily risk range and a chart pattern is forming. We are taking a stab at it here.
Deflationary pressures and fed that will be lucky to get in any more hikes and may need to reverse as they cannot raise rates into falling GDP, slowing growth and commodity prices ( Oil , Wheat , Corn the exceptions) across the board under pressure.
Oh yes, then there is the chart pattern and multiple time periods all look bullish . As real rates decline 10yr...
Shorting it again, SL above prior high, call it 20 even.
This is a fundamental as well as technical trade. Dollar strengthening, commodities making the turn, growth slowing, rate of inflation will slow as well.
Dollar up, stocks down, gold up, commodities making the turn, growth sequentially slowing and expected to slow further through Q2, deflation ahead in commodities, but oil remains a problem meanwhile the fed is hiking into slowing growth, we are in for a wild ride in Q2 while interest rates rise. In any case, want to remain long dollars, long gold, short most...
Probably should have had this in earlier today around 1910, but I am buying it here at 1932 to ADD to an existing position.
I put a SL in on this particular portion of the position below the low. Macro view is the same and has not changed. Q2 could be devastating and gold should perform well in this emerging environment.
This is a temporary trade against my own better judgment in a bear market buying a falling knife.
My overall macro approach is that the dollar should continue to perform in Q2 and maybe the Euro will in my opinion see par or worse.
In any case, there is a technical approach that justifies a small trade here with some room for error and adding some.
Bought a little bit 141, a little more at 137 and am loading to max size in this position now. Everything in increments.
Reason is same as previously stated for this security and position. Inflation peaks and in Q2 we will have a continued slowdown in growth and inflation. CPI is peking.
Then there is the larger time frame chart pattern that we like.
We bought some earlier near 141 were buying some more here. Chart is setting up for a nice move higher but more importantly the macro tells us growth is slowing, in spite of rate hikes (6+) priced in, the fed will realize raising rates as growth slows would be disastrous and we will probably not get more than 2 and the inflation peak in commodity prices is likely...
Adding to a prior short now scaling-in to maximize position size. Oil is about the lone remaining holdout of all the commodities primarily due to current supply/production issues. I expect this will not last forever. The macro theme is deflation at the moment, and on top of that the pattern is setting up for a nice drop. Could we still move higher, of course,...