botop

botop

possible case for a complex wave 4 of 3, with 5 of 3 to follow at a 3480 +/- 10 target. alternative is a bounce before a .887 retracement of today's move, for a 1-5 of 1/A already being complete and a quick 2/B quite high over coming days.

botop Updated 

We're either dealing with an ABC correction currently, or the next leg up. This analysis deals with the ABC correction case, before a subsequent fall (again). If either of these play out then we're looking at a fall to follow, if the price undershoots or overshoots, then it's the next leg up, where undershoot = w1, and overshoot = w3.

botop Updated 

holding since 1.6, watching this play out, easily invalidated

botop Updated 

Rapidly changing my view point on the short term view to this outcome, it fit's too well, would be a perfect merge bounce off the long term downwards resistance from the top, the vwma, the fib levels, the merge dates, the broader market doing a (2) or (B) depending on your view

botop

several kinds of analysis simplified, with one assumption, that w1+w3 are equal length in time, so w5 will be too.

botop Updated 

possible chance to load up on puts over the coming days, will invalidated based on the structure of B.

botop

Looking back historically on the fall from the high, it's an outstanding ABC correction. A+C are both 2700, both take 75.5 days, the B rides the 50% of wave A for a few days before C begins, and C is just identical to A. Perhaps the most interesting nuance, is the recent low, it happened to bounce right off the 1.272 of wave A, and that also coincided with the...

botop Updated 

seems to fit, everywhere I look - not confident yet, but a couple of sep puts just in case.

botop Updated 

following on from big short seems to be working out and following typical wave patterns, next stop looks immenant on the way to a 1220-1250 target range, which may also only be an interim step on the way to ~980

botop Updated 

can fit the same projection in another idea over NQ and SPX, opened shorts just in case.

botop Updated 

I'm confident the next move on most markets will be big, and happy to be bullish - taking the view the backdated recession has already peaked, and markets already bottomed. in again at 23,700, SL at 23,350, will update SL if we get past that fib level we've been bouncing off repeatedly.

botop

Numbers I'm watching: * 12hr close > 24,300 for bull * 12hr close < 22,800 for bear

botop

I realise these are strange economic times, and people are looking for major swings, but it seems more than viable that BTC will trade sideways around the 28 Day VWMA, topping at the 4 Year VWMA, until a few weeks after the 90 Day VWMA crosses below the 28 Day VWMA. between 20k-22k till mid november '22 crossing 32k january '23 peaking at ~50k march '23 ...

botop

This has never happened before, any time the 30 day MA came close to the 4 year weekly, which was twice, the price moved from ~$200 to $20k+, then from ~$3k to ~$68k. I am long, and in cold storage now, until 200k+ Honestly no idea why people are looking at 23k and 28k like they are relevant, they're about as relevant a marker to the upcoming journey as the end...

botop

6yr Weekly MA touched and bounced, I have a feeling we won't spend much longer at these relative lows, I personally expect an immenent daily close above 21800, then some time in the next range (22-36k). I feel this is the last time period, where it is possible for many person to be able to acquire a full bitcoin.

botop

284 week for floor. Weekly Close above 208 week for long / buy zone. Weekly close above 104 week MA for bull. Yet to calculate something for top..

botop

s&p probably start lifting aug/sep, so will btc, back up through void, fall again around new year, slight lift early q2 '23, fake floor q3 for a while, then '24 start of next cycle

botop Updated 

either bounce off the ma and look for a daily close above 120.5 today, or a drop down towards 112. Looking for a weekly close above 122 or 127. wild guess, but call 117 opened