"5" of "B" is here. All sentiment, pricey multiples, poor real growth, and expansive optimism point to this rally being a "B" rally. "C" leg of major expanded flat leads to sub $60 pricing. If "C" follows similar trajectory to 2007 decline then by January 2018. If "C" leg follows similar trajectory to 2000 decline then by 2020ish.
just updating my earlier forecast for the clear extending (iii) of iii circle. Should be mostly sideways until two minor pullbacks end around 112; likely in a triangle or extended flat due to alternation...then zoom to v circle before reversing in an overlapping (B) wave down for a couple months before resuming the ascent in (C) to 135 or $1,350 cash spot before...
v of iii circle of 3 appears to have begun in today's afternoon reversal ending the relief rally. Since v would be equal to i at 183, short of iii's termination, expect v to extend to 1.618 of i and end around 178 before the next short term relief rally to circle iv. Main point is that the waves clearly indicate that the main trend has reversed. Also note that...
First 5-3-5 is near completion and if it morphs into 5-3-5-3-5 than that will be Minor 1 of (A) of Primary B. This should be a quick ascent as its the initial correction of a large slow ending diagonal that started in May 2014. (A) likely ends near 125 before correction in (B) before continuing to (C) of Primary B around 135 (1,350 cash gold). This will take a...
Expanded flat where Fed ZIRP caused exaggerated pricing of (B)....look out below!!
Primary correction ABC with B as a triangle indicates (C) is the final move before the trend change. Is the Fed going to the printing presses to drive heightened inflation leading to sub .6 target for primary circle 3? See analysis from 11 months ago...
Ending diagonal continues to resolve; tomorrow's decline will be 3 of 5 and should be a quick decline below 180 with 5 of 3 ending around 171.59 before next significant counter-trend rally...there will only be counter-trend rallies for the next couple of years while major wave C unfolds to below 60, or 600 SPX...
Wave (2 ) appears to have ended in 3 wave A-B-C. If minor wave (3) is starting now then stay short to 160 where (3) will be 1.618 times wave (1).
Ending diagonal resolving quickly to initiate onset of (C) bear market to ~600 SPX...
Added 7/5/15 - Just saying...let's see how she plays out!... This is an update to my earlier SPY analysis published 3 months ago where I incorrectly counted 5 of B as complete. A triangle began at that time leading to the conclusion that this final thrust is the real v of 5 of c of B preceding the devastating C retracement to ~600 (this is C of the expanded flat...
Clear Elliot wave 5 down and ABC correction. C = A at .8992. ABC retraces 50% of 1 at .9189. So, Fibonacci cluster at .8992 - .9189 for 2 before 3 BELOW .6000 with greater bearish potential by 2019.