Wave count calls for a sharp drop tomorrow. Will we soon fall below 194 and confirm the end of the bull? NO BULL!
If this ending diagonal plays out, be prepared to liquidate at 1.05...and then go long on first 3 wave pullback of first 5 wave of minor degree up... Short term: long to 1.15 Medium term: short to 1.05 Long term: Neutral until first 3 wave pullback of first 5 of minor degree up
SPY has now fallen below the previous uptrend channel after completing a minor wave 5, and potentially the grand cycle 5. If this fall continues past 198, the previous 4 up, there is a very good chance that this is finally the end of this 2 year topping process.... If there is a rally back above 217 then the short will be closed and instead go long for what...
An impulse waive is commonly divided by the golden ratio at the bottom of the fourth wave leading to a more precise estimate for the end of (A) at 125...then be looking down to begin a slow overlapping corrective (B) wave before continuing the major upward correction to (C). The termination of (B) will inform the target for (C)...
if this is an extended triangle 4th wave then expect a quick "thrust" lower to 5...
Minor wave (A) appears to count complete after stopping just shy of the previous minor wave (4) high; a common termination for an initial counter-trend advance. Expect GLD to now correct downward in overlapping waves to approximately 114 before launching higher in minor wave (C)...which should be the end of the counter-trend advance before resuming the larger...
Notice that On Balance Volume has been NEGATIVE FOR OVER A YEAR during this year-long topping process and its been on a trend of decline since the trend line of the 2000 to 2007 tops was crossed. Has the mania ended? You tell me; what do YOU think happens next? I'm short...
Diminishing OBV with end of Wave 2 flat high supports conclusion of Wave 3 down beginning. Wave 3 is typically 1.618 times the length of Wave 1...let's see how it goes...I'm short.
Wave structure is signaling a significant drop in the EUR versus USD...GB exit from EUR would provide that initial emotional impetus to sell EUR for the next few months before launching back into a long-term bull market for EURUSD Let's see how it plays out...
We are approaching the deep retracement target of 127. Might be best to take profits here. Once this wave ends expect a choppy overlapping wave (B) down...probably to around 113 before launching (C) up... Let's see how it plays out...
TNX appears to have ended its 3 wave decline. If 3 hits the common 1.618 multiple of 1 expect TNX at 4.23 before its next significant correction, which will end above 3.0, the top of wave 1 and then likely equal the ascent of 1 for wave 5... Long TNX, short bonds...
5 Wave Elliot wave down (Wave A of major correction 3-3-5) from peak ended in very long and slow ending diagonal (very rare). Expect a quick retracement in wave B (an ABC) to 135 GLD or 1,350 Gold spot. However, be very quick to reverse and go short as major wave C down ensues. Expect wave 3 to take GLD down to 50, where C will equal A.
If this is becoming 3 circle of (3) then the next few days should be some of the most volatile in years. Long to 44 but cut your losses if it falls to 19. So you are risking 3.71 loss for a gain of 22.
For those students of Elliot, this (W) (X) (Y) overlapping sideways move clearly represents a correction of 1 where (W) is an expanded flat followed by the ziz-zag (X) then the triple zig-zag (Y) where A = C and a circle = c circle at 203. Now, look all the way back to April where you can see that this current correction is ending in the immediate range of the...
Notice that clearly corrective rally ending this double zig zag corrective wave 2 has terminated in duration very similar in time as the 2000 and 2007 failed corrective waves (I've copied and indicate the 2007 and 2000 channel paths as indicated). Are we beginning wave 3 down? It appears likely and the entire structure from the late August low at 1 is clearly an...
Ending diagonals almost always reverse quickly with a deep retrenchment. Expect an overlapping upward correction to ~38, the previous (iv) over the next 8 months. Its been a long slow decent, so probably a quicker upper correction.
If (A) ends at a 78% retracement of the ending diagonal as forecast then expect (B) to retrace 50% of (A) at (iv) of iii circle before launching (C). It would be common for (C) to end where it equals (A) so if (B) ends at ~114 then (C) should take GLD to ~140. Be ready to flip BEARISH once (C) approaches 140...cash Gold 1,400 should prove round number resistance...
Final minor 5th sub wave of 5 wave advance (C) of 2 Circle meets .618 retracement of 1 Circle at .9894 (C) equals 1.618 (A) of 2 Circle at 1.0094 5 of (C) equals 1.618 of 1 of (C) at 1.0038 Final minor 5th wave of 5 of (C) equals 1st minor wave of 5 of (C) at .9787 So, more refined top target of 2 Circle between .9787 and 1.0094 and then 3 Circle crashes to WELL...