caugfour

caugfour

Looks like the floor was indeed established at the old ceiling. (at least for now) The heavy volume we see at $81 and $91 helps confirms the new range of the price battle. Obviously conflicts help establish this, but such is life in the commodity world. The more conflict spreads to key locations around the globe, the more established this new zone becomes. For...

caugfour

For the longest time, the $82/83 level was a hard ceiling for Oil. When it broke through it did so with a vengeance. Only to hit the next ceiling at $94/95 and bounced down like Dennis Rodman was on defense against it. Now the question is weather or not the old ceiling is the new floor. Lets hope it is, otherwise we will see the low 70's of the previous range...

caugfour

ITs been a while since i wrote about Oil, but watching the current price action makes me smile. The west is losing the commodity price battle with OPEC+. You can reference my past posts, but $94 has been my call for some time now. In my opinion its a key resistance level, and if it passes this into the new zone, we will see alot of volitivity a and rapid...

caugfour

One thing about trading, and technical analysis is that its easy to start seeing ghosts.... In this case, we have what could be a potential head and shoulders pattern forming on the 4hr chart. Which if price breaks below the neckline would be very bearish. However one could also looks and see the triple bottom that's formed and the most recent bounce off that...

caugfour

the bottom range indicated on the chart as been a strong support recently. But I'm not so sure it holds up this time, we may see Oil drop down into the $60's and start trading a new range soon depending on the US economy and no terrible new from the War in Europe. I still fell supply is way to low and price should push higher longer term but right now i'm a bit...

caugfour

The conspiracy theorist in my always wonders who's actually pushing the market around like this....... I want names people! LOL

caugfour

I believe we will see another run at $82 over the next month. Both December and January gave us failed attempts at breaking the level. Expect increased volatility though as the rumor mill around the the European War and Opec+ intensifies. Politically we could see big swings as a result of news. Keep your stops tight and don't get caught with your pants down....

caugfour

I wrote a little while back about the Key zone Oil was entering. This still seems to be holding true. I am now reminded of the old cliché "the longer the base, the better the case". Which I feel also applies to sideways channels in general. The longer a chart moves sideways in a tight channel, the bigger the potential break out. Much like coiling a spring. If...

caugfour

We are again testing the lower edge of a key zone for oil. If it breaks through the initial resistance, it could either trade inside that zone or break above and form a new support level where the resistance used to be. I would watch the volumes and tick charts to see where big players enter the market here and be patient. Wait for the price to show its hand. ...

caugfour

The year is ending with a lot of question marks and even more guess's as to what will happen. The price has obviously been in a steady down trend since its peak early this year with the Ukraine/Russian war. The threat of recession due to the governments battle with inflation and the perception of demand decline has been hitting the price right in the teeth it...

caugfour Updated 

3rd times the charm as they say, Oil had tested the resistance around $77 twice recently and failed. Today it managed to push past it. I believe this was in part due to the US inventories coming in below 800k barrels. Which is well below the average of slightly over 1 million for the last five years. Technically speaking we've got another minor resistance range...

caugfour

As previously indicated, Oil was testing resistance just below $78 and that level held firm. Seems the negativity around demand and the economic slow down is winning the short term battle over tight supply. Fundamentally speaking I'm bullish into Q3 2023 for oil as people wake up to the supply and inventory issues. But for now we will have to let this...

caugfour

We might see some big moves up or down oncea direction off the $78 range is established. The tug of war between Oil fundamentals and Western inflation fight is a big factor. Supply is not improving at all but governments want to push it down.... Trading is risky, do your homework and have fun.

caugfour Updated 

Looking to see if Oil breaks above $76 and form new support before heading to $77 and $78 where it might bounce off the longer term downtrend again... Open for discussion, trade at your own risk... have fun!

caugfour

Was reminded today about the volume indicator, and thought this was in interesting pattern in Oil. The price very much likes to be range bound and channel sideways during the low volume periods, offering opportunity to trade as it breaks out up or down. The 30 min chart on Oil really shows the volume spikes early-mid day and they look alot like a heart monitor...

caugfour

Im going to try and identify the daily ranges of Light Crude and the price swings based on fundamentals, the supply / demand curves can be drastically effected by gov. policy both domestic and foreign. I believe North American governments are pushing their economies onto the edge of recession. This will obviously push Oil lower. However i think their will be...

caugfour

$77 seems to be a price point for both bulls and bears on the 30m chart, looking to buy and set TP at roughly that point. Market looks at little over sold to me ahead of the BoC rate announcement and next weeks Fed announcement. There is also an upcoming Opec+ meeting that I'm excepting to push prices back up to the $80 range if even for a short time as they try...