Oil dangerously close to retreating into its old range
For the longest time, the $82/83 level was a hard ceiling for Oil. When it broke through it did so with a vengeance. Only to hit the next ceiling at $94/95 and bounced down like Dennis Rodman was on defense against it. Now the question is weather or not the old ceiling is the new floor. Lets hope it is, otherwise we will see the low 70's of the previous range come back into play.
So how determined is OPEC+ to keep prices high & how determined are western governments to kill inflation and domestic demand. Are they willing to do enough damage to their own economies to bring global demand back down? If so for how long?
Personally my guess (we just make guess's) is we see a pullback to the low 70s/high 60's after one more 0.25 hike by the FED this year.
Remember, the market leads the economy, so i think the signs are there already. Aside from Energy and Big Tech, the markets are already telling us the recession is here, its just a matter of waiting for the backward looking numbers to be reported. Look to end of the first quarter of '24 to show us what we are missing today.
Keep your guns loaded my friends, and don't bring a knife to a gun fight.
So how determined is OPEC+ to keep prices high & how determined are western governments to kill inflation and domestic demand. Are they willing to do enough damage to their own economies to bring global demand back down? If so for how long?
Personally my guess (we just make guess's) is we see a pullback to the low 70s/high 60's after one more 0.25 hike by the FED this year.
Remember, the market leads the economy, so i think the signs are there already. Aside from Energy and Big Tech, the markets are already telling us the recession is here, its just a matter of waiting for the backward looking numbers to be reported. Look to end of the first quarter of '24 to show us what we are missing today.
Keep your guns loaded my friends, and don't bring a knife to a gun fight.