With a tight stop I will sell short in gold to tag EMA 200 again. A key reversal candle is forming on the hourly at the trendline. I think noone can tell now what will happen in gold. Looks like it wants to break out from the pennant soon, but we might get a curveball and it goes down one more time to the lower leg of the pennant or at least to the 300 EMA. And...
ERX (The fund seeks daily investment results of 300% of the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index .) broke out today. The fund had its biggest rally today since 11.16.2015. The breakout has a good volume. ERX had a higher low when oil was printing a lower low on 02.11. So the energy shares were pricing that oil is bottoming soon. Based on this oil will...
Oil is doing what I was waiting for.: It's climbing higher and higher. If we can hold above 34.60-34.70 this week then oil will print a double bottom with a breakout. We have a MACD cross with a divergence of the weekly RSI. The trendline is broken... Technical traders will be buying from tomorrow. I would like to see a larger volume than last week or at least...
I give one more chance for gold to come down to the lower leg of the triangle. The upper leg was tested this night. MACD had crossed over. Stocks are up. Dollar is still heading down today. Because I don't want to lose on this one - and I'M not sure we can come down to the triangle lower leg - I'll take profit on the half of the position at the 200 EMA (1225.61)...
Yesterday ERX (This fund seeks daily investment results of 300% of the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.) was down -2.75% while oil was up. I think there was an artificial move in the oil shares yestersay, so possibly BigMoney was positioning yesterday in oil shares while small investors were selling. They just simply pushed down the price and small...
Just a short thought. The dollar is getting stronger , but gold simply cannot fall even with the strengthening dollar. If gold cannot fall in these conditions into the DCL (today or tomorrow the latest) then I say we are going to break up from the pennant.
Lot of traders got nervous last week Friday because oil moved down from that important resistance zone at 34.78. For me it's still trending up. We didn't break the trendline, 4hrs chart 10 & 20 EMA didn't cross over. It's still a bottoming process to me. We will take out that 34.78 level soon and price wil move fast to 40. We just have to sit in the position ,...
I will give one more try to a gold short this night. Selling short at the hourly 10 EMA. (1223) Stop goes to 1227. Target : 1179.6 (Daily chart Fibonacci 38,2%) - but I might take profit at the hourly 500 EMA (1192 today)
That's why I was nervous regarding GOLD's COT... Silver's blees rating was at 0 last week Tuesday... These happenings are important for gold also. Silver is late in its daily cycle and moving down into its DCL : A. It might be producing a Bollinger band crash signal at 14.3 testing back the breakout and then turning up and making a higher high B. or already...
I'm looking forward to see a bollinger Band crash signal like at the last daily cycle low on 01.06. So I'm waiting for toi break below 1.0875 and I will add to my opened EurUsd short. I think they are playing out the techical traders who will sell into the breakdown from the channel. We are very late in this daily cycle. The daily cycle should come any day...
I updated the my COT chart in gold. It looks a bit complicated , but I tried to put every important thing on one chart. IT'S VERY DANGEROUS TO BE HAVILY INVESTED IN GOLD , BECAUSE PRICE CAN GO TO BOTH DIRECTION! Let's see from point to point: 1. We are still in the pennant . On 24.02. I thought we broke out but the price was slammed back from 1251. With 284.003...
As I posted I see internal weakness in gold. The junior bull needs some rest now. Hourly chart 10-20 EMA is crossing over , I will try sell short if price tags the 50 EMA (1234.5 ) and 10 EMA (1234). I will sell 50% of the planned short position at 1233.5 and 50% at 1234.5. Target price is at the hourly 300 EMA (1210). Stop at 1243.5. We have lower highs since...
I feel weakness here. Gold had broken out of the pennant and gave us only a few hours of rally. Commercials have around 300.000 short positions by now. I was waiting for those shorts to be covered at the breakout. But nothing happened.... Commercials are still short in gold.
I just noticed how similar is the present situation in oil to the 04.06.2015 situation... We have a beartrap : a lot of people shorted oil in the breakdown on 02.11.2016... I want to see their short squeeze tomorrow or Monday when we break above 34.52... That short squeeze will push price to the 100 EMA and to the 200 EMA. I think this daily cycle will top at...
It's a strong long now. OIL had bottomed. Daily chart MACD is crossing over again with a higher low. 10 EMA and 20 EMA is crossing over, and today will be the 4th day price is above the 10 and 20 EMA. There's a huge divergence between the price and the MACD and RSI indicator: while the price was printing a lower high on 02.11. MACD and RSI was making a higher...
A possible daily cycle low was printed in EurUsd yesterday. I we could close significantly today above 1.1043 ( price goes above 1.1043 and stays there )I will open a long position. Stop goes below the DCL (1.0957). The only thing makes me nervous is the MACD that should have crossed over.. But that may come later. We might be testing and break above the...
I don't think we will have a significant breakout today... Maybe tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It's not going to be an easy breakout. Traders are nervous and we have a hell of a lot of commercial shorts. Prepare for the false breakouts.... One thing is sure . If we break to the upper direction it will be a wild run to 1300 with the young bull.
A pennant forming in gold. The commercial's short position was near 300.000 last week. It means big banks are waiting for gold to fall into the daily cycle low. But the buying pressure in gold is so strong that it seems to me that we are forming a pennant instead of the daily cycle low... A pennant pattern is a continuation pattern in the 95% of the cases... The...