christian.langfors

christian.langfors

This pullback/correction might not be that deep. 10330 closest resistance, most likely many short S/L close to that area. Might see quite good support/rebound around ~10250. Bulls heads-up if we go below 10200.

christian.langfors

Volatility a bit low but still good probability to get a correction before mid week.

christian.langfors

Compared to previous bear markets, this price action pattern is just too obvious to ignore. Perhaps it is also too obvious for actually playing out as like it did before, only time will tell.. Note also the big negative RSI divergence on this monthly DAX chart.

christian.langfors

If this area (204 / 203,5) doesn't hold, expect a test of 200 in 1 or 2 trading sessions.

christian.langfors

.. and a time to go fishing. And that is basically how I see the situation right now, at least for SPY. The main rising trend channel has broken down and there is, in my opinion, not a good timing for taking on new positions right now.

christian.langfors

/ES (SP500 fut.) has dropped like a stone in the deep sea over night (currently at time of writing ~1,5%). SPY closed already yesterday below lower Bollinger Bands on the daily chart and if the market opens & closes at another -1,5%, we are way below the lower Bollinger Bands. By looking at the historical SPY charts, I'd say there is quite good odds for...

christian.langfors

The start of the year 2016 hasn't been good for the stock markets, at least not for them bulls. The European markets haven't yet opened "in fully" today and DAX is already below very important support (DAX fut. ~9970 at the time of writing). Although I hate the term "oversold" but many indexes are at these "oversold" levels, thus not impossible to get a rebound...

christian.langfors

Mr. Market responding quite strongly after the drop below lower Bollinger Bands (20,2) the other day. Bullish candle yesterday got continuation today with a gap up. Might test MA20 on the daily this week but the bigger picture is still ugly.

christian.langfors

This is beginning to look more bearish than I had imagine at the beginning of the week. If we close at this level without buyers stepping in, could see pullback to lower bollinger bands on daily time frame! MA20 on daily is now first better support.

christian.langfors

About here is where bears should put their attack IF we are about to go down stairs. Bulls must defend ~9900 area. IF ~9300 is taken out, look for atleast test of 9000 but guessing on low 8000. DAX long term bullish when over ~10300.

christian.langfors

DAX rebound continues today. Sofar the rebound seems quite strong and I'm guessing that trapped shorts are fueling the rally. We might continue a bit over 10K to knock some puts and what not. Also on shorter time frames, price action reminds of rounded bottom. Not unlikely that we bottomed but time will tell (gut feeling says that this is not yet over though.....

christian.langfors

This is my DAX price action estimate for October. High risk IMHO to short at this point with good risk:reward. Possible rebound to MA20 on daily time frame. October has been historically very volatile on DAX. Furthermore, I guess DAX builds an intermediate bottom in October but need to follow price action etc. more in detail the two first weeks in Oct. Good luck,...

christian.langfors

If this month closes at or below this level (currently @1851), this will be one ugly month where 20 months of bull rally where erased in a few trading days! It sure doesn't look good at the moment but notice how SPX has rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band on a monthly chart in the first leg down, all the way up to MA20 on a monthly time frame. Time will...

christian.langfors

The current drop is too much too fast, although there might be some fundamental issues in the background. We had a similar setup 2011 where DAX dropped very fast in a single month. From a technical perspective, I'm neutral at the moment, i.e. too much of a risk to further short right now, but also front running going long at this stage. Expect rebound but more...

christian.langfors

Interesting setup for SPX on the daily time frame. Quite good odds for both short and long with with OK risk:reward ratio. If you plan on going long on break-out, be careful of false break-out which SPX does quite often.

christian.langfors

DAX managed to break out upwards from 12200 resistance last week. I would now state that everything above this level is bullish, and a heads up if 12200 is tested and fails. With that said, look at a weekly chart of MACD and DAX. The current bull trend is parabolic.. 3.bp.blogspot.com

christian.langfors

Futures are pulling back today and for them bulls it is, as I see it, crucial that the yesterday gap up open is not compromised (e.g. SPX should not go below ~2060). If 2060 is compromised, check 1h chart for possible double bottom, consolidation around 2040. GL!

christian.langfors

... or will it be filled at all anytime soon..? This year, we have only one unfilled gap on SPY. This gap was a runaway from ~202 to 212 without any major pullbacks on the road. However, lately all gaps have been filled sooner than later. Also this last pullback is missing the "double bottom" seen on 1h chart. Volume with the move looks good though and also MA20...