christophercolumbus

christophercolumbus Updated 

As per the charts I've posted previously, I'm quite confident that the bottom is in based on the previous predictions having played out. I'm now looking for confirmation of that bottom, and I think a useful metric for this would be the MACD, which is largely a lagging indicator - as a lagging indicator it will also serve as confirmation. This first chart, in the...

christophercolumbus Updated 

Very likely for something like a reverse head and shoulders to form should BTC be building a base here. All good for sustainable price increase going forward...

christophercolumbus Updated 

The Bollinger band width measures how volatile prices are over a certain time period. The monthly chart reflects well peak volatility at the top of the cycle and minimal volatility at the bottom. What's most noticeable is that volatility doesn't bottom out until well after the price bottom. Looking at the previous cycle, even after price had recovered well off the...

christophercolumbus Updated 

The main principle of the MACD, a momentum indicator, is it will also want to revert to the mean, which in its case is the zero line. As expected, the MACD line, the average of a shorter and longer term moving average, is coming back to the zero line after a too explosive spike to the upside. For the past few weeks, however, the histogram has been contracting...

christophercolumbus

The above long term monthly chart in Bitcoin compares the volatility of price , the RSI and price itself. The main observation being that the low in price volatility is an extremely lagging factor compared to both price itself and the RSI, which tends to coincide with price. What's noticeable at first glance, at the previous cycle's bottom, is the opposite...

christophercolumbus

Some consolidation and coiling of price within the symmetrical triangle in the first half of the year followed by a breakout and resistance met in the ascending triangle for the second half of the year. New sustainable ATHs early 2021.

christophercolumbus Updated 

Unless we're to be completely in the dark about price development, all we have to go on is the past. Looking at the previous cycle, you can see that even as price bottomed, the monthly MACD continued to decline for a full 8 months. Yes, you read that right - 8 months. This is simply because the MACD is primarily a lagging indicator. And yet some are now using...

christophercolumbus

If 100K odd is the next peak, then price is already a quarter of the way there, and time-wise could nearly be half the way there. What would have been over 30x at the 3K bottom is now half that - nearly 15x.

christophercolumbus Updated 

Weekly MACD shaping up to re-cross bullishly soon to confirm the continuation of the next cycle. The weekly MACD is the right time frame for analysis of the medium term moves and their relation to the multi year cycle - the daily too short, the monthly too long. Looking at the monthly MACD, you can see that from a technical perspective, BTC has never been in a...

christophercolumbus Updated 

If the bottom is put in here, the logarithmic growth curve begins to look obvious. And yet it is still anything but 'obvious' to most in the Crypto sphere. What looks obvious to some, and anything but obvious to others, is itself explicable in terms of the paradigm. Of course, the paradigm that has been most dominant recently has been the S2F model. Like all...

christophercolumbus

Double fractal pattern on both time and price. Bottom near in.....

christophercolumbus

Turn around near on the basis of the time fib.

christophercolumbus Updated 

1] First of all, it helps if you have the log version of the MACD. As the MACD is a measurement of moving averages, and as these moving averages can move exponentially over longer periods of time, they threaten to become defunct if the log version is not used. If the log MACD is not used, you'll notice the linear version will only have the current values, where...

christophercolumbus

Given the log growth curve, it was inevitable that the multi-year trendline stretching back to 2012 had to at some point be broken. Now that it has been convincingly crossed, the log curve itself starts to look like a structure of support... as opposed to merely being a mean line with which to average out prices. It became clear, earlier in the course of the...

christophercolumbus

The elephant in the room for the bears is reducing volatility. Once they see this , they will also see that BTC has fully corrected here as compared to previous cycles, and the current price dynamic. Reducing volatility does not refer to the current lull in price movement but to the over-all reduction in the swings from the average price . So for example, in...

christophercolumbus Updated 

Taking a cycle to be from the previous base to the next one] Though some say BTC has experienced 4 cycles, I'm going to compare what I think are the two major cycles. Given the nature of the growth curve, and the implication of reducing volatility that comes with it, arguably it makes sense to see these two cycles of equal duration... they certainly are of...

christophercolumbus Updated 

Time is running out for the bears, who see a repeat of 2014/15 unfolding on the horizontal. On the vertical, not only has price fully retraced, but the pattern between the corrections look quite different. Short/ medium term outlook is further sideway consolidation.

christophercolumbus

There are some close resemblances between this cycle just seen in ETH and the previous cycle in BTC. Same rate of appreciation, and same retracement. A possibility is that the next cycle in ETH will resemble this one just seen in BTC. Will ETH always be just a step behind?