After having failed a second time to break the long term resistance (red line), it is maybe time to think about an alternative scenario. Especially since 56% Net Short in COT Report points that there is not that much possibility for a further price increase.
After the somehow strange decision by BOJ last night, I am changing my intermediate Target to 1400 Region... A correction for sure will come. At some time, but not now as expected. Bad timing this year....
On break of 3.00 the next target is 4.30 Region...
So, OK! A new record. 56% Net Short of Commercials. FOR SURE THE DO NOT KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING. All of the will go BROKE. Well.., some bit of difficult to "estimate" price development wit the help of COT Report, but if we do not break LT Resistance line (red) till 20. Aug, we will be coming cross-resistance and most likely we will be rangebound to this resistance.
With HYD and JNK following perfectly Crude price development I am currently just waiting on completion of inverse shs Formation by Crude. HYG just completed inverse shs Formation and corrected back to neckline where it bounced back the last 2 days. If we do not see further decline in HYG/JNK Crude should correct quickly back to 50 Range. My personal time scale is...
12 Trading days without any major movement... Flat as the Dutch Mountains! The same time commercials are increasing their net short positioning. In fact I would have expected SP500 in the 2200 region with these data. I am starting to think about a selloff with a 2000 test. Staying neutral till major movement starts.
Not because of Chartology, but www.cmegroup.com . Margins on 1kg contracts increased by 60% .
I think this Wykhoff view on Crude Point and Figure Chart is quite striking. As long as we stay with LPS above PS, we should prepare to see prices above 130 within reasonable time.
As expected we reached the bottom of this cycle's decline... COT Indicator from last Tuesday back in "Buy" region (short term) and commercials net short % should be back at long term average. Daily Candlestick as EOW close looks promising. Starting to think about long longs...
So, after having started a short at 1365 I am happy to see that also in last Tuesdays COT Data some interesting changes occurred. From the chart we hit the upper boundary of the expanding flat / rising wedges and I guess if we would not have last night's military mess in turkey 1310-1320 would have been the EOW close. From the Chart we currently have 2 targets....
So, not that much time till BOJ decision on monetary policy. Whatever they decide it will be WILD. If they dissappoint USDJPY might be back below 95 within the next few days. On the other hand a wild movement to above 115/120 is also possible. I personally expect a Japanese "Whatever it takes"...
Inline with my expectations 1 1/2 weeks ago we reached my target region of Oil Futures. With this weeks decline the short term COT Indicator should be at 100 and I am rather expecting a strong rebound to 46 Region than a further decline. Closing shorts and waiting on this weeks COT Data to decide if to go long or to wait another week.
It seems that we either have a redistribution or an accumulation phase in Nikkei. On completion of the accumulation motif going long. With the current point and figure count the target is in the 20800-21600 Range.
From last weeks COT Report further decline is possible and likely. I am not really expecting a drop below 40, but there is the possibility that the 40-42 Region can be hit within the next 1-2 weeks. I am expecting the reduction of Commercials Net Short % back to long term average of about 14-15 % prior the start of the next upward trend.
Worth a try... especially since USDJPY going up.
Not sure if 1.618 ext. will already fall...
But you can't make us afraid!