I think now we are in a bit weird trading range. At the beginning I thought we are in an accumulation TR, but the Black Friday I decided to sell again. Let's see, in 6 hours.
Despite the general excitement and the desire to see another to-the-moon trip, I think that a short scenario awaits us in the near future. In the chart above, a pattern of distribution, not re-accumulation, is emerging. Of course, this is not an absolute truth, since the market, at the moment, has the opportunity to convert phase E to C, by means of a spring, but...
This time I've added a price reversal forecast, so these red and green arrows - just a test of one method.
Well, in a current market environment, I think we should expect another test of resistance level. We still have a higher low and right now there is no reason to sell. Also, there is one interesting bar "A" with a huge volume inside, it tells us about buying activity of current CO. For now, I'd like to classify this TR as an accumulation, not a distribution model.
I'm considering current model as an Accumulation. Tomorrow is a holiday, Thanksgiving Day, so I don't expect a lot of volatility.
I decided to revise the previous forecast due to changes in the market. So, I labeled this trading range as Distribution, but I think it's too early to say that this is exactly this pattern. I hope to see phase C (Spring) at the end of January. Forecast dates are based on cyclical analysis and represent only a statistical probability, not a 100% statement.
I'm waiting for Fase C in this downslope trading range. Right now, I cannot argue that this is a distribution pattern without a confirmed Fase C. Some of my research points to November 11 as a possible new lower low(Spring?). We'll see in a month.
Based on Jack Schwager's Technical Analysis. Mainly, I used business cycles with relatively good correlation. Red color - sell zone, Green color - buy zone. Note: There is no price prediction. Cycles show only time patterns. I'll update it in three months.
I'm looking for a sell entry. For now, I'm expecting a retracement to ~61.8% and according to cycles we can have a sell opportunity.
Sell in a few hours. Trade duration: 29 hours approx.