Heading into the long weekend, SPX manage to cover some weekly loss along side with oil. But the rally doesn't seem like impulsive. It looks more like a 4th wave correction that could lead us to 1880 area. Next week, Be extra careful about this resistances area. If we manage to go through it convincingly, it is safe to say that the correction since last year is...
There is no RSI divergence yet for the blue cycle. A lower low in this cycle is preferred. The highest possible target of incoming decline is around 24.20. After that. We will have a long top side correction likely take us to the mid of the year. In the larger cycle. There is another 5th wave ahead of us later this year.
To start considering buy dip under 1.43. Likely target of wave (C) is around 1.42 handle.
Just a follow up of the previous idea today. Looking at a bigger picture, the downside target of SPX could be deeper than previous mentioned. The initial support just below Jan low around 1800 handle is projected by the fib relation inside the current 5th wave . The lower level support around 1760 handle is based on the C wave decline since last year. The...
The first leg of the correction was fast and impulsive. General dollar weakness is getting exhausted, I expect the pair to remain under pressure near term. The B wave could be already over. However, the immediate risk is a pop up higher toward 0.714 region to complete a triangle and start the wave C decline from there. *** wait for the basic trend line of wave B...
False breakout ALARM. Do not chase down the dollar from here. Fib levels and RSI divergence at multiple time frames suggests a classic 5th wave fake out today in USDOLLAR index . I expect the EURUSD to be choppy, USDJPY0.13% to continue dropping and reverse later, GBPUSD , AUDUSD are going to suffer the most from this dollar rebound. *****The labeled 5th wave...
I was a risk seller since the turn of the new year. However, I didn't expect USDJPY to suffer the most. Here we are, USDJPY below 114. There has been abnormal level of yen volatility during the Asian session. The bottom of the yen pairs is very likely to be a deep V shape reversal as I think it will be stopped by BOJ intervention. The next important level I am...
The current wave count supports the idea of catching a long term (c) terminal at around 0.7875-0.79. This is also an European version of risk on-off play. We have come a long way. This is a counter trend trade but the risk/reward makes it worthwhile.
The SPX had managed to catch up the pace of decline by a little bit. The failure at 1880 today after Yellon could trigger faster route of correction, which lead us to a 5th wave low. Many fib measurement point to a tight level around 1808. This is marginally lower than the Jan low. Although a extended 5th wave could not be ruled out, the highest likely outcome...
The S&P is lagging a lot in term of decline mainly because the short covering in the energy sector. This is my current preferred wave count. We could be in a complex triangle mid term, and in the short term, while DAX is making new low, S&P could just makes a deep wave B correction and start rally from there toward wave (d) high. Another possibility would be a...
The DAX became the weakest index among majors. However, it could be the first one to see the bottom. The index is making new low today, we could see further downside next week. BUT, the 1950 level is super super HUGE. it is the long long term channel support, and a ideal end of the current 5th wave. If we see hard bounce from that level. We will witness the end of...
Equities are selling off with different wave count. If AUDJPY could bounce from the level showed in the graph and the equity finish either a B or a 5th wave. We could see risk rally hard in the coming weeks.
The sharp decline from the high could easily be counted as impulsive. The rally we have seen after weak NFP was a corrective move. Looking to sell next week. I like AUD, GBP.
If RBA gave us the 5th leg up, or it became a non event, we could see a nice rally in the future. Although the current rally is exhausting, whether or not there is 5th wave up is very crucial for the medium term. Let us wait and see.
EURJPY also line up very well with the current market dynamics. A final push down before bulls took the control.
After watching the market for a week, and the price action in the risk scene. The euro is due for another rally next week. We have a very choppy triangle wave (2) almost finish and euro is going shot up alongside with risk off.
Don't fall into euro's bear trap. The picture becomes a bit tricky after BOJ's surprise. However, The count is still clear.
The standard ABC count give us a potential 4th wave reversal zone. The index has already break first fib cluster zone. To finish a 5 wave move, 1959 is the next level to watch. If 1975 is broken, The simplest ABC(335) count will be invalidate. and we are probably witness a triangle.