geckler

PRO
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Last visit Joined 5 years ago geckler
Markets Allocation
50 % stocks 19 % forex 13 % commodities 19 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 12% | 2 CVX 6% | 1 TIP 6% | 1 GG1! 6% | 1
geckler geckler PRO DV1!/VI1!, W, Short , 2 years ago
DV1!/VI1!: VSTOXX v VIX
132 0 0
DV1!/VI1!, W Short
VSTOXX v VIX
Not since 2013 has the ratio of front month VSTOXX to front month VIX futures been so blown out. We see limited US equity upside and view the Greece situation as resolving without an immediate credit event when push comes to shove. According to a Kappa Research survey published in Greek weekly To Vima, 71.9% of ...
geckler geckler PRO SPY, D, Short , 2 years ago
SPY: How I Could Be Wrong About the $SPX
244 0 0
SPY, D Short
How I Could Be Wrong About the $SPX
Came into 2015 negative on equities with very high cash levels. For a number of fundemental and risk profile reasons we are reluctant to allocate to equites. However, on a technical basis the $SPY has spent Q1 in two defined trading ranges if the recent lows in SPY hold the market will have put in a higher low. ...
geckler geckler PRO CL1!, W, 2 years ago
CL1!: TWO GEO-POLITICAL EVENTS WHICH DEFINED SUPPLY RISK FOR YEARS
213 1 4
CL1!, W
TWO GEO-POLITICAL EVENTS WHICH DEFINED SUPPLY RISK FOR YEARS
The start of the Arab Spring cemented prices in a range above $80 where market forces and shale production might have otherwise forced prices down in 2012. The late summer Obama ordered airstrikes on ISIS after the group overran Mosul - this action all but took a Basra Iraq supply disruption off the table as ...
geckler geckler PRO IWM/SPY, W, Short , 2 years ago
IWM/SPY: Ungood
73 0 0
IWM/SPY, W Short
Ungood
The small deviations are buying opportunities the large ones are bad times...
geckler geckler PRO IBB, D, Long , 2 years ago
IBB: IBB Long hanky sell off IMO
91 0 0
IBB, D Long
IBB Long hanky sell off IMO
IBB closed below lower BBs for only the 5th time in the last couple years Friday on some pretty "janky" headlines if you ask me about Henry A. Waxman (D-Beverly Hills) wants Gilead Sciences Inc. to explain why it priced its new hepatitis C drug, Sovaldi, at $1,000 a pill. Considering nobody asked any questions ...
geckler geckler PRO GM, D, Long , 2 years ago
GM: GM - LBR Group Trend Reversion Setup
131 0 0
GM, D Long
GM - LBR Group Trend Reversion Setup
Old LBR Group 5EMA trend reversion setup -- basically after 5 above or below the EMA you fade the first close on the opposite side. Trade is closed on the first close above or below EMA after reversion or at designated stop level. GM is a portfolio investment from the lows early in the month -- we've added to the ...
geckler geckler PRO USO-BNO, D, Long , 3 years ago
USO-BNO: WTI-Brent Spread Short
194 0 0
USO-BNO, D Long
WTI-Brent Spread Short
WTI/Brent spread up to $11 today I had big short last year @ 24 Loooking for a move back down to $3 by the end of the year but expecting news of early take up of Keystone pipeline." The market has quickly accepted Libya output but failed to appreciate how delicate the situation there is the PM having just been ...
geckler geckler PRO GG1!, D, 4 years ago
GG1!: Euro Bund Strangle Idea
368 0 0
GG1!, D
Euro Bund Strangle Idea
Wedge formation into year end for the Bund - given rumors of a downgrade and the seemingly unlimited talk from the ECB - either way the market realizes GER pass through risks or the situation deteriorates and peripheral spreads blow out and Bunds get bid to highs. I like Strangles out to Feb
geckler geckler PRO EURUSD, W, Long , 4 years ago
EURUSD: EUR Squeeze Scenario
1072 2 1
EURUSD, W Long
EUR Squeeze Scenario
Have been very bearish on EUR generally over the last few years - early to SPA 5yr at 200bps etc - however one only needs to remember back to 2010 and last year to dial up a squeeze in EURUSD - GS put out note on Draghi presser day in early August Long EURUSD and again yesterday calling for further squeeze as CFTC ...
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