hardforky

hardforky Updated 

Expecting this to hold and long. If it breaks down we retest bottom trendline. HF

hardforky Updated 

Whilst some sentiment has turned bearish I think we are in a holding pattern right now until ETF news break us up or down. Expecting to hit 7900 / 200MMA. Expecting the momentum to reverse up once the daily has reached bottom. Localised volume is good imo - see MFI Expecting major moves on the 2nd. As noted I'm holding very little now although a roll of the dice...

hardforky Updated 

Acting a support - Minor selloff thus far so I'm expecting it to hold here at the 0.5 FIB and BTC to push back up. What I'm most interested in is the ALTS. As noted in the last idea, despite the Coinbase op I dropped out of my XLM position and just played out my BNB which I've been sitting on for 4+ days. I still have some BTC. I suspect BNB will continue to...

hardforky Updated 

ALTs bottoming out and poised to potentially break down as folks jump onto BTC (47%). I'm not convinced the ETF will happen but if it does everyone is expecting a pump. Sad to say but typically I laugh at the 'moonboy' charts over the last 6 month with lines pointing straight up but I'm horrified to think for once (!) they might be right and there may be a gold...

hardforky

Despite the push MFI suggests volume is not present after the sell on the 20th. Expecting retrace. I've moved the down trendline to ignore the peak at the beginning of April - aligns better with current sell pressure. Will adjust if we shift up to the 7,900 mark. I'm taking a little risk on the expected retrace with my XLM holdings but happy to take some profit.

hardforky

Currently looking at crypto playbook strategy and considering impact on my holdings. - Create buyers - Identify big news story, buy ALTs: ETF - people don't understand it but promises the moon. Perfect territory to create liquidity. - Energise the market - Pump BTC and hold the line - Cash in - Dump the ALTs into FOMO, cycle for 2x days - Next move - assess sell...

hardforky Updated 

I went long following my last post re: iH&S (where I actually did some research :)) - Invested in ALTs - Perhaps a little early to be in ALTs but I think money coming in to be in USDT or FIAT so I'm expecting them to continue to rally rather than sucked dry by BTC - there is little juice left in them anyway. Weighted towards XLM - despite missing the initial...

hardforky Updated 

Volume plays a crucial role in the Head and Shoulders Bottom, more so than top. With light volume on the pullback suggesting profit taking rather than heavy sell pressure and CMF and OBV indicators remaining positive it suggests a high likelihood of a breakout. Reviewing the structure on the daily the volume trend, indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (a version...

hardforky

I think we all expected the drop to here but there is also some fear about a deep drop to 4800 / 3k. If we close today lower than this mark then i think BTC is in trouble but I still expect us to bounce around the 6-7.5k mark for a few months. Daily RSI suggests a little more to go but unsure whether this will crash and form a deeper bottom. If it does I'm...

hardforky Updated 

-Indicators look like there will be a short term correction. -H&S formation will close off and there is a good chance it will go up with a similar formation in April. Volume looks ok but who trusts the exchanges right? -Concern is the ALTs have been dumping. BCC in particular is looking lackluster. Lack of interest from the weekend worriers as the WC and TDF...

hardforky Updated 

Typically seen at double tops, my guess is it is part of a manipulation where price inflated off a 'genuine' bullish move. Low bearish activity to draw in buyers and then a sell off. Volume might come back in but I'm out for now Hard Forky

hardforky Updated 

Simple MFI divergence (bespoke length set to 30 at 2hr) - Accumulation occurring before the expected events to turn bullish. Next - Similar pattern in April 7th (the weekend) Expecting to run along the bottom side of the channel then drop come Monday. - Watching MFI for confirmation of this - drop (in volume) while RSI remains high. I'll reset and compare (length...

hardforky Updated 

2 weeks later and now $236bn. $26bn away from target. Notes on previous Idea below but the Idea was centered around everything being interlinked - i.e. don't just look at BTC / a single ALT when evaluating where the market is going. The trend takes you to a total market cap of $212bn. This was a market drop of 21% from $268bn however I would not necessarily...

hardforky Updated 

Las time is saw sell walls this big in the ALTs it was at the end of the last bottom manipulation. The likes of BNB are being squeezed, BTC blocked. - My current reading is that the price is being suppressed to ensure Futures targets are hit - see related idea from a few weeks ago. Unfortunately I don't think the 'bear' market is over due to base product economics...

hardforky Updated 

Are we on an uptrend - even if it is short lived? I've become a fan of MFI as I learn more about it - perhaps it will be a passing FAD as I continue to play with bb but in this world of HFT bots I need any weapon I can get our hands on to slay the Market Maker. I've updated RSI and MFI to a length of 50 periods (instead of 14) as the pricing action is too...

hardforky Updated 

So I have placed a stake in the ground. After sitting on FIAT and Tether (with the exception of a few beer money trades which marked a few breakout opportunities but failed) I'm going to target this area for a swing. And I have a (wild) rationale! 1. My analysis of Money Flow Index - see related Idea helped me identify whether the uptrend line may be broken...

hardforky

I''ve posted a few posts on my investigation into MFI. We are swamped with so many indicators but this in contrast with RSI can help identify early warning signs of moves up and down on short and long term time frames. I'm using it now to validate all trades when I use RSI. - MFI does suggest some small support at 8450 level - If it fails then we are heading...

hardforky Updated 

Buyers need to exit but first need to create the stops. My read on the situation is to expect sharp moves up as MM hunts stops. Bulls will takeover once this H&S is complete. Will consider making this trade if the price temporarily drops but MFI stays bullish. Mid-term bearish. Sincerely, Hard Forky