Price compression on SPY appears to be bear flag or pennant. Price action has been kangaroo style across several prior month with sizeable January rally. FOMO and dumb money jumping into risk in midst of continual rising rates and poor earnings reports, especially from Big Tech. Market expected contraction to reflect forward PE compression to reflect realistic...
SP500 sell offs in 2022 have been of similar magnitude. Bear market rallies have rebounded equally to 62% FB level of previous sell off. Sustained volatility and poor forward earnings will result in continued PE compression across growth sectors. Energy prices will moderate due to demand destruction causing energy sector reversal. This will result in a final sell...
FB retracements, regression analyses, 200 WMA and third negative run in the SP500 will result in bottom range of 350 to 330 for SPY. Inflationary pressures, US Treasury yields, QT, supply chain issues, and continuing US Govt spending have created macroeconomic environment leading to further downside on SP500. Recession and extent of future earnings disappointment...
S&P500 has experienced three contemporary devaluations of approximately 10% in Q1 2022. While intermittent rallies have occurred the overall trend is bearish. Following these trends to support, the chart implies further 5% downside to support 392 by December 2022 and 10% move to 370 by May 2023.
Volatility spiking in markets toward end cycling. FOMC rate hikes have increased baseline volatility as markets experience co-current effects of post-pandemic supply disruption and inflation.
